Bill Hicks - Creationists
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ict558 wrote:
Of course I organised my life as if I believed I would rise tomorrow, but "faith" in rising the next morning? No, just probability.
As I already said only the insane and those in extreme circumstances rationally view it that way. When you make lunch plans for a co-worker/friend for tomorrow or next week you do not think "there is a 99.9998% chance that I will be alive then so lets go for it". You have no conscious choice about your day to day chances for life in the future because you believe (and I use that word specifically) that you will be alive. You might assert that you recognize that there is in fact a probability that you won't be alive but you don't use that knowledge in your day to day life because it is much easier to just believe in your life expectancy (and many other things as well.)
jschell wrote:
As I already said only the insane and those in extreme circumstances rationally view it that way.
And as I already said: "OK, I'm insane."
jschell wrote:
When you make lunch plans for a co-worker/friend for tomorrow or next week you do not think "there is a 99.9998% chance that I will be alive then so lets go for it". You have no conscious choice about your day to day chances for life in the future because you believe (and I use that word specifically) that you will be alive.
You might assert that you recognize that there is in fact a probability that you won't be alive but you don't use that knowledge in your day to day life because it is much easier to just believe in your life expectancy (and many other things as well.)Thank you so much for telling me what / how I think. :) You believe in your life expectancy? How interesting. How many variables (gender, race, age, nationality, region, height, weight, ... ) do you introduce? Do you omit those that reduce your expectancy, or would you be happy with, say, 5 years?
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
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jschell wrote:
As I already said only the insane and those in extreme circumstances rationally view it that way.
And as I already said: "OK, I'm insane."
jschell wrote:
When you make lunch plans for a co-worker/friend for tomorrow or next week you do not think "there is a 99.9998% chance that I will be alive then so lets go for it". You have no conscious choice about your day to day chances for life in the future because you believe (and I use that word specifically) that you will be alive.
You might assert that you recognize that there is in fact a probability that you won't be alive but you don't use that knowledge in your day to day life because it is much easier to just believe in your life expectancy (and many other things as well.)Thank you so much for telling me what / how I think. :) You believe in your life expectancy? How interesting. How many variables (gender, race, age, nationality, region, height, weight, ... ) do you introduce? Do you omit those that reduce your expectancy, or would you be happy with, say, 5 years?
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
ict558 wrote:
You believe in your life expectancy? How interesting.
Yes.
ict558 wrote:
How many variables (gender, race, age, nationality, region, height, weight, ... ) do you introduce?
Do you omit those that reduce your expectancy, or would you be happy with, say, 5 years?No idea what you are talking about. I suspect that you didn't understand what I said. Your statements suggest that you think that I am analyzing the probability of my life expectancy. And I said exactly the opposite. My decisions day to day are based on the belief, and nothing else, that I will be alive tomorrow, next month, next year and 10 years from now.
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ict558 wrote:
You believe in your life expectancy? How interesting.
Yes.
ict558 wrote:
How many variables (gender, race, age, nationality, region, height, weight, ... ) do you introduce?
Do you omit those that reduce your expectancy, or would you be happy with, say, 5 years?No idea what you are talking about. I suspect that you didn't understand what I said. Your statements suggest that you think that I am analyzing the probability of my life expectancy. And I said exactly the opposite. My decisions day to day are based on the belief, and nothing else, that I will be alive tomorrow, next month, next year and 10 years from now.
jschell wrote:
No idea what you are talking about.
Life expectancy: the expected (in the statistical sense) number of years of life remaining at a given age.
jschell wrote:
I suspect that you didn't understand what I said.
Well, I certainly didn't understand that by 'life expectancy' you meant some arbitrary age of your choice, rather than one for your demographic profile.
jschell wrote:
Your statements suggest that you think that I am analyzing the probability of my life expectancy.
Only because you used the term 'life expectancy', and even then I did not expect you to perform an analysis, merely to refer to the appropriate tables.
jschell wrote:
And I said exactly the opposite.
So how do you arrive at that 'life expectancy' you believe in? Or will you merely "accept without question that [you] will not die tonight and that [you] will rise tomorrow" until you die? Pretty close to believing in your immortality. (Presumably, then, you have no Will, no Life Assurance, ... or similar provision "that has any impact at all on [your] life"?)
jschell wrote:
My decisions day to day are based on the belief, and nothing else, that I will be alive tomorrow, next month, next year and 10 years from now.
My decisions day to day are based on the varying degrees of probability that I will be alive tomorrow, next month, next year, and 10 years from now. But I doubt that any outsider would discern much difference in my daily behaviour and that of one who believes as you. (Except for my Life Assurance, Will, and 'What to do when I die' folder of pro-forma letters for Mrs. ict558, etc. :) )
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
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jschell wrote:
No idea what you are talking about.
Life expectancy: the expected (in the statistical sense) number of years of life remaining at a given age.
jschell wrote:
I suspect that you didn't understand what I said.
Well, I certainly didn't understand that by 'life expectancy' you meant some arbitrary age of your choice, rather than one for your demographic profile.
jschell wrote:
Your statements suggest that you think that I am analyzing the probability of my life expectancy.
Only because you used the term 'life expectancy', and even then I did not expect you to perform an analysis, merely to refer to the appropriate tables.
jschell wrote:
And I said exactly the opposite.
So how do you arrive at that 'life expectancy' you believe in? Or will you merely "accept without question that [you] will not die tonight and that [you] will rise tomorrow" until you die? Pretty close to believing in your immortality. (Presumably, then, you have no Will, no Life Assurance, ... or similar provision "that has any impact at all on [your] life"?)
jschell wrote:
My decisions day to day are based on the belief, and nothing else, that I will be alive tomorrow, next month, next year and 10 years from now.
My decisions day to day are based on the varying degrees of probability that I will be alive tomorrow, next month, next year, and 10 years from now. But I doubt that any outsider would discern much difference in my daily behaviour and that of one who believes as you. (Except for my Life Assurance, Will, and 'What to do when I die' folder of pro-forma letters for Mrs. ict558, etc. :) )
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
ict558 wrote:
Pretty close to believing in your immortality.
Nope. I believe that at some future time I will reach a point where I do not expect to be alive within a short period of time in the future.
ict558 wrote:
My decisions day to day are based on the varying degrees of probability that I will be alive tomorrow,...
I am rather certain that the vast majority of people in the world do not consider that probability when making a lunch appointment for the following day.
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ict558 wrote:
Pretty close to believing in your immortality.
Nope. I believe that at some future time I will reach a point where I do not expect to be alive within a short period of time in the future.
ict558 wrote:
My decisions day to day are based on the varying degrees of probability that I will be alive tomorrow,...
I am rather certain that the vast majority of people in the world do not consider that probability when making a lunch appointment for the following day.
jschell wrote:
I am rather certain that the vast majority of people in the world do not consider that probability when making a lunch appointment for the following day.
That maybe so, but I do. And the upside is: my documentation is always up-to-date. :-D
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
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jschell wrote:
I am rather certain that the vast majority of people in the world do not consider that probability when making a lunch appointment for the following day.
That maybe so, but I do. And the upside is: my documentation is always up-to-date. :-D
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
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ict558 wrote:
That maybe so, but I do.
I have seen no evidence that most people or even a measurable number do that. So my original supposition stands (one example of many) of a blind beliefs that almost everyone uses in their day to day lives.
jschell wrote:
I have seen no evidence that most people or even a measurable number do that.
Dr. Jacob Bronowski[^] claimed that he planned his walks through London so as to minimise the number of roads he had to cross. Would you have seen evidence of that?
jschell wrote:
So my original supposition stands (one example of many) of a blind beliefs that almost everyone uses in their day to day lives.
As long as you extend 'almost' to include me in addition to "the insane and those in very extreme circumstances" - feel free.
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
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jschell wrote:
I have seen no evidence that most people or even a measurable number do that.
Dr. Jacob Bronowski[^] claimed that he planned his walks through London so as to minimise the number of roads he had to cross. Would you have seen evidence of that?
jschell wrote:
So my original supposition stands (one example of many) of a blind beliefs that almost everyone uses in their day to day lives.
As long as you extend 'almost' to include me in addition to "the insane and those in very extreme circumstances" - feel free.
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
ict558 wrote:
claimed that he planned his walks through London so as to minimise the number of roads he had to cross. Would you have seen evidence of that?
Which means absolutely nothing. The fact that I know the odds of a black jack table and play using those odds doesn't mean that the rest of my life is not based on blind belief. Nor does it mean that because I do use probability at black jack it doesn't mean that a majority or even a significant minority of other black jack players also use probability.
ict558 wrote:
As long as you extend 'almost' to include me in addition to "the insane and those in very extreme circumstances" - feel free.
When you order lunch do you calculate the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen? When you buy car insurance do you calculate your personal risk of injury in death in choosing the rate and coverage? When you navigate each intersection in your car do you consider the accidents statistics for each intersection? And do you do so based on time of day and environmental factors? When you walk down the stairs do you calculate your chance of taking a fall? Do you offset the probability of a fall on the stairs versus the physical benefit of taking the stairs versus the elevator? Etc, etc, etc.... If you do not in fact calculate the probabilities of the vast number of varying things in your life then you are accepting some facet of your life via "blind faith". On the other hand if you are in fact calculating all of those probabilities all of the time then I would suspect that most psychiatrists would deem that you have a problem.
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ict558 wrote:
claimed that he planned his walks through London so as to minimise the number of roads he had to cross. Would you have seen evidence of that?
Which means absolutely nothing. The fact that I know the odds of a black jack table and play using those odds doesn't mean that the rest of my life is not based on blind belief. Nor does it mean that because I do use probability at black jack it doesn't mean that a majority or even a significant minority of other black jack players also use probability.
ict558 wrote:
As long as you extend 'almost' to include me in addition to "the insane and those in very extreme circumstances" - feel free.
When you order lunch do you calculate the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen? When you buy car insurance do you calculate your personal risk of injury in death in choosing the rate and coverage? When you navigate each intersection in your car do you consider the accidents statistics for each intersection? And do you do so based on time of day and environmental factors? When you walk down the stairs do you calculate your chance of taking a fall? Do you offset the probability of a fall on the stairs versus the physical benefit of taking the stairs versus the elevator? Etc, etc, etc.... If you do not in fact calculate the probabilities of the vast number of varying things in your life then you are accepting some facet of your life via "blind faith". On the other hand if you are in fact calculating all of those probabilities all of the time then I would suspect that most psychiatrists would deem that you have a problem.
jschell wrote:
Which means absolutely nothing.
Which means that you did not understand the point: Observing Bronowski on his walk from, say, Sloane Square to St James's Park, it would not be evident that he had chosen a route that would minimise the number of roads to be crossed. Thus "I have seen no evidence that most people or even a measurable number do [consider the probability that they will still be alive when making a lunch appointment for the following day]", raises the question: What evidence could you see? If you were to suggest that we meet for lunch tomorrow, you would receive an immediate affirmative. Based on that evidence, how could you know whether: a) "I accept without question that I will not die tonight and that I will rise tomorrow"? b) I merely organise my life as if I believed I would rise tomorrow, although I have no 'faith' in my so rising?
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
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ict558 wrote:
claimed that he planned his walks through London so as to minimise the number of roads he had to cross. Would you have seen evidence of that?
Which means absolutely nothing. The fact that I know the odds of a black jack table and play using those odds doesn't mean that the rest of my life is not based on blind belief. Nor does it mean that because I do use probability at black jack it doesn't mean that a majority or even a significant minority of other black jack players also use probability.
ict558 wrote:
As long as you extend 'almost' to include me in addition to "the insane and those in very extreme circumstances" - feel free.
When you order lunch do you calculate the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen? When you buy car insurance do you calculate your personal risk of injury in death in choosing the rate and coverage? When you navigate each intersection in your car do you consider the accidents statistics for each intersection? And do you do so based on time of day and environmental factors? When you walk down the stairs do you calculate your chance of taking a fall? Do you offset the probability of a fall on the stairs versus the physical benefit of taking the stairs versus the elevator? Etc, etc, etc.... If you do not in fact calculate the probabilities of the vast number of varying things in your life then you are accepting some facet of your life via "blind faith". On the other hand if you are in fact calculating all of those probabilities all of the time then I would suspect that most psychiatrists would deem that you have a problem.
jschell wrote:
When you order lunch do you calculate the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen?
When you buy car insurance do you calculate your personal risk of injury in death in choosing the rate and coverage?
When you navigate each intersection in your car do you consider the accidents statistics for each intersection? And do you do so based on time of day and environmental factors?
When you walk down the stairs do you calculate your chance of taking a fall? Do you offset the probability of a fall on the stairs versus the physical benefit of taking the stairs versus the elevator?
Etc, etc, etc. ...None of which has anything to do with: "Of course I organised my life as if I believed I would rise tomorrow, but 'faith' in rising the next morning? No, just probability." BTW: I am using probability in its secular, not mathematical, sense.
jschell wrote:
If you do not in fact calculate the probabilities of the vast number of varying things in your life then you are accepting some facet of your life via "blind faith".
Twaddle. Being observant and careful reduces risk. Ensuring that a restaurant is clean (and the staff likewise) is more rational than calculating the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen. Neither eliminates that possibility, but the former is faster and more effective. Similarly, I always take the stairs, but exercise observation and caution, especially when descending. And as a cyclist, I am exceedingly cautious and observant at intersections, especially those without traffic lights.
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.