Bill Hicks - Creationists
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jschell wrote:
I have seen no evidence that most people or even a measurable number do that.
Dr. Jacob Bronowski[^] claimed that he planned his walks through London so as to minimise the number of roads he had to cross. Would you have seen evidence of that?
jschell wrote:
So my original supposition stands (one example of many) of a blind beliefs that almost everyone uses in their day to day lives.
As long as you extend 'almost' to include me in addition to "the insane and those in very extreme circumstances" - feel free.
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
ict558 wrote:
claimed that he planned his walks through London so as to minimise the number of roads he had to cross. Would you have seen evidence of that?
Which means absolutely nothing. The fact that I know the odds of a black jack table and play using those odds doesn't mean that the rest of my life is not based on blind belief. Nor does it mean that because I do use probability at black jack it doesn't mean that a majority or even a significant minority of other black jack players also use probability.
ict558 wrote:
As long as you extend 'almost' to include me in addition to "the insane and those in very extreme circumstances" - feel free.
When you order lunch do you calculate the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen? When you buy car insurance do you calculate your personal risk of injury in death in choosing the rate and coverage? When you navigate each intersection in your car do you consider the accidents statistics for each intersection? And do you do so based on time of day and environmental factors? When you walk down the stairs do you calculate your chance of taking a fall? Do you offset the probability of a fall on the stairs versus the physical benefit of taking the stairs versus the elevator? Etc, etc, etc.... If you do not in fact calculate the probabilities of the vast number of varying things in your life then you are accepting some facet of your life via "blind faith". On the other hand if you are in fact calculating all of those probabilities all of the time then I would suspect that most psychiatrists would deem that you have a problem.
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ict558 wrote:
claimed that he planned his walks through London so as to minimise the number of roads he had to cross. Would you have seen evidence of that?
Which means absolutely nothing. The fact that I know the odds of a black jack table and play using those odds doesn't mean that the rest of my life is not based on blind belief. Nor does it mean that because I do use probability at black jack it doesn't mean that a majority or even a significant minority of other black jack players also use probability.
ict558 wrote:
As long as you extend 'almost' to include me in addition to "the insane and those in very extreme circumstances" - feel free.
When you order lunch do you calculate the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen? When you buy car insurance do you calculate your personal risk of injury in death in choosing the rate and coverage? When you navigate each intersection in your car do you consider the accidents statistics for each intersection? And do you do so based on time of day and environmental factors? When you walk down the stairs do you calculate your chance of taking a fall? Do you offset the probability of a fall on the stairs versus the physical benefit of taking the stairs versus the elevator? Etc, etc, etc.... If you do not in fact calculate the probabilities of the vast number of varying things in your life then you are accepting some facet of your life via "blind faith". On the other hand if you are in fact calculating all of those probabilities all of the time then I would suspect that most psychiatrists would deem that you have a problem.
jschell wrote:
Which means absolutely nothing.
Which means that you did not understand the point: Observing Bronowski on his walk from, say, Sloane Square to St James's Park, it would not be evident that he had chosen a route that would minimise the number of roads to be crossed. Thus "I have seen no evidence that most people or even a measurable number do [consider the probability that they will still be alive when making a lunch appointment for the following day]", raises the question: What evidence could you see? If you were to suggest that we meet for lunch tomorrow, you would receive an immediate affirmative. Based on that evidence, how could you know whether: a) "I accept without question that I will not die tonight and that I will rise tomorrow"? b) I merely organise my life as if I believed I would rise tomorrow, although I have no 'faith' in my so rising?
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.
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ict558 wrote:
claimed that he planned his walks through London so as to minimise the number of roads he had to cross. Would you have seen evidence of that?
Which means absolutely nothing. The fact that I know the odds of a black jack table and play using those odds doesn't mean that the rest of my life is not based on blind belief. Nor does it mean that because I do use probability at black jack it doesn't mean that a majority or even a significant minority of other black jack players also use probability.
ict558 wrote:
As long as you extend 'almost' to include me in addition to "the insane and those in very extreme circumstances" - feel free.
When you order lunch do you calculate the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen? When you buy car insurance do you calculate your personal risk of injury in death in choosing the rate and coverage? When you navigate each intersection in your car do you consider the accidents statistics for each intersection? And do you do so based on time of day and environmental factors? When you walk down the stairs do you calculate your chance of taking a fall? Do you offset the probability of a fall on the stairs versus the physical benefit of taking the stairs versus the elevator? Etc, etc, etc.... If you do not in fact calculate the probabilities of the vast number of varying things in your life then you are accepting some facet of your life via "blind faith". On the other hand if you are in fact calculating all of those probabilities all of the time then I would suspect that most psychiatrists would deem that you have a problem.
jschell wrote:
When you order lunch do you calculate the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen?
When you buy car insurance do you calculate your personal risk of injury in death in choosing the rate and coverage?
When you navigate each intersection in your car do you consider the accidents statistics for each intersection? And do you do so based on time of day and environmental factors?
When you walk down the stairs do you calculate your chance of taking a fall? Do you offset the probability of a fall on the stairs versus the physical benefit of taking the stairs versus the elevator?
Etc, etc, etc. ...None of which has anything to do with: "Of course I organised my life as if I believed I would rise tomorrow, but 'faith' in rising the next morning? No, just probability." BTW: I am using probability in its secular, not mathematical, sense.
jschell wrote:
If you do not in fact calculate the probabilities of the vast number of varying things in your life then you are accepting some facet of your life via "blind faith".
Twaddle. Being observant and careful reduces risk. Ensuring that a restaurant is clean (and the staff likewise) is more rational than calculating the probability that you will get sick or die from a food borne pathogen. Neither eliminates that possibility, but the former is faster and more effective. Similarly, I always take the stairs, but exercise observation and caution, especially when descending. And as a cyclist, I am exceedingly cautious and observant at intersections, especially those without traffic lights.
If people made the effort to read something three times before commenting, blogs would be much more useful places. - Anon.