Covid versions - NOT POLITICAL (I promise)
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This is a very interesting article on how RNA viruses (common cold, flu, SARS, COVID-19) mutate. [https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200918-why-some-deadly-viruses-vanish-and-go-extinct?ocid=ww.social.link.email\](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200918-why-some-deadly-viruses-vanish-and-go-extinct?ocid=ww.social.link.email)
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.
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Very interesting, thanks. I hadn't seen that. But that makes sense. I'm no epidemiologist but I imagine that each year there will be slightly different Covid strains, just like the "regular" flu does now. And when they do get a vaccine will it be as inefficient as the flu vaccines are now?
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That's my take and what I've heard from so-called "experts".
#SupportHeForShe Government can give you nothing but what it takes from somebody else. A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you've got, including your freedom.-Ezra Taft Benson You must accept 1 of 2 basic premises: Either we are alone in the universe or we are not alone. Either way, the implications are staggering!-Wernher von Braun
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Well, there are about 7.5 million cases and around 200K death. So that's 200000/7500000 = 0.0267. And 0.0267 * 100 = 2.67%. So let's say around 3% dies. For a certain percentage it's a (very) nasty flu-like disease. And for everyone else it's a mild flu or even nothing. Even if that last part is only 10%, that still means 750K people experience little to no problems. That last part is far bigger than 10% though, I don't have numbers, but I think most people are good. The problem is that those 3% that die need to be hospitalized, but we don't have that capacity, making it all a very nasty business with corpses in the street and whatnot.
ZurdoDev wrote:
maybe it's because American's eat so much junk food our immune systems are stronger?
Actually, that 3% mortality rate is pretty high because you guys eat so much junkfood. That stuff really isn't good for your immune system...
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Dude, the mortality rate from COVID in Europe or rest of the world is higher than in what it is in the US. US has 2.9% mortality rate REST: 3.3% mortality rate
#SupportHeForShe Government can give you nothing but what it takes from somebody else. A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you've got, including your freedom.-Ezra Taft Benson You must accept 1 of 2 basic premises: Either we are alone in the universe or we are not alone. Either way, the implications are staggering!-Wernher von Braun
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Quote:
That stinks. The US has not had that problem.
FTFY - you haven't watched all the news, have you?
- I would love to change the world, but they won’t give me the source code.
Yes, I have and the hospitals here have NOT had the problem. There was scaremongering at the beginning, but nothing since. Lots of pictures of hundreds of empty beds. *yawn*
#SupportHeForShe Government can give you nothing but what it takes from somebody else. A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you've got, including your freedom.-Ezra Taft Benson You must accept 1 of 2 basic premises: Either we are alone in the universe or we are not alone. Either way, the implications are staggering!-Wernher von Braun
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Hit a nerve, did I? :laugh:
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
The "global" mortality rate is 1 million vs 34 million infected; or "3%" (like the US of A) Since some countries are running almost "0 %", someone else is taking up the slack. So when someone says "there isn't a problem", they're only thinking of their little bubble.
It was only in wine that he laid down no limit for himself, but he did not allow himself to be confused by it. ― Confucian Analects: Rules of Confucius about his food
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False positive is a whole polarised political debate in and of itself unfortunately. I just have a bit of a bee in my bonnet over the media's use of the term test and the over-simplification of the idea that a clinical test produces a binary answer and that there is an agreed upon gold-standard for testing sars-cov-2. But it just feels like the words "test, test, test" that were uttered by the head of the WHO, over-simplify what can be a rather complex and nuanced process, both with the actual protocol of the test and with the interpretation of the results. I don't know why people have different experiences and it would be good to be able to have a lot of these sorts of questions answered, although I imagine the answers would probably be "it depends.." as are a lot of answers in the world of medicine.
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
Testing, per say, doesn't directly help anything. However, let's presume that in a given local they use the same test (or mix of tests). What then? Well - the rate of positives is an indication of how well the spread is being contained. Sure, eventually everyone will get it (or maybe a vaccine), but the point with testing is not direct prevention. It's to determine how to set the parameters to avoid overloading the medical care system. An antibody test that implies immunity would be useful in allowing those who are found to be immune (by whatever means) can modify their behavior to take advantage of their protected status - and hopefully not be jerks and become second-hand spreaders. Eventually, I hypothesize, the population will be fully exposed and it will then be left as a childhood disease - the only non-immune part of the population at that time - and small children, although virulent spreaders, rarely suffer from the disease. Until then, however, I err on the side of living cautiously whilst awaiting a real breaktrhough.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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I have gotten it, my whole family got it, half the people at work got it, a 70 year old at work got it and was back to work in a week. It wasn't that bad. Does the US have a different version of Covid than Europe? I know my anecdotal experiences don't prove anything on a grand scale nor am I trying to, but I do find it interesting that my experiences with Covid have been so much easier than others experiences. Or, based on a thread yesterday about Subway, maybe it's because American's eat so much junk food our immune systems are stronger? :) Although I don't ever eat fast food. Schools have been back in session for 2 months and nothing has happened. I know some denser populations had some problems when school opened back up. Everyone in the world at some point will be exposed to this thing if they haven't already. Maybe it's the people that got infected early on that are having the worst time? Maybe I had already been exposed and built a little immunity but then was exposed again and again and finally got it but it wasn't that bad? Or maybe testing just doesn't work? I find it interesting how varied the experiences with Covid are throughout the world. It's easy to understand those that have been impacted hard are fearful of it and those that haven't don't worry much about it. Very interesting.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
If there were a "weaker" US strain of the corona virus... Go to Coronavirus Update - Worldometer[^] - one of the sites that has gained a lot of reputation lately. Scroll down to the 'Reported cases' table. Click on the the header of the "Deaths / 1M pop" column to sort it on that property. Look at which countries are at the top of the list. A few countries shot like a rocket to the top in spring, partially because it wasn't clear how serious the situation was, and which precautions are necessary. Later, the growth in deaths/1M in some of these countries have been far slower. Some list top countries have health facilities far below Europe/US level, and a social structure that makes it difficult to enforce protective measures. Note that several top entries most likely have the US "weaker strain" of the virus, yet topping the Deaths/1M list. Then: The country claiming to have the best medical system, the best hospitals, the best doctors in the world: #10 on the list today, and climbing. Not long ago, it was #14, but has passed UK, Italy, Sweden... Those ahead of it include Ecuador (which may soon be overtaken), Chile, Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, ... If the US strain is weaker, and the US health system is better than anywhere else, why then does the corona virus kill far more people in the US than in the great majority of European countries, as well as in most other countries? One essential element is lifestyle. "I am free - I have a right to be infected". Obviously, that is only one element. But it is part of the problem. You may argue that "It would be even worse if we had the more aggressive European strain of the virus". Today, the US has 13 times as many deaths per million as my country. Maybe, with the European strain the US death count per million would be 20 times as high, or 30 times as high as in my country. In spite of the best hospitals in the world, the best doctors, the best testing... If the US strain is weaker, I guess US guys should be really happy that they didn't get anything more aggressive!
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Very interesting, thanks. I hadn't seen that. But that makes sense. I'm no epidemiologist but I imagine that each year there will be slightly different Covid strains, just like the "regular" flu does now. And when they do get a vaccine will it be as inefficient as the flu vaccines are now?
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
See here (only a few posts up): The Lounge[^] I don't know anyone, directly, who's had it. On the other hand, an acquaintance lost three friends - clearly on the high side. Empirical data (observation) point to most people not getting very ill at all - nearly half with no symptoms. But of those that do, it can be a real bitch. Even those that recover may have long term lingering effects. Although bacterial, Chicken Pox and Lyme Disease both stay alive and dormant in one's system for a lifetime. Well, dormant most of the time. But here's the thing: how many lives are lost with a 1% death rate in just the US? over 3.5 million! Even a tenth of that, with the entire population susceptible, where taking about a horrible number of deaths. Five or six Vietnam War's worth. Probably outstripping all US wars aside from the Civil war. As for your food hypothesis: if it is correct I'm F***ed! Most of the worst fast food is of a nature that I can't won't eat it. Mainly Taco Bell Bean Burritos and heaven's gift to humanity, Pizza.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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That's my take and what I've heard from so-called "experts".
#SupportHeForShe Government can give you nothing but what it takes from somebody else. A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you've got, including your freedom.-Ezra Taft Benson You must accept 1 of 2 basic premises: Either we are alone in the universe or we are not alone. Either way, the implications are staggering!-Wernher von Braun
It's not like the real scientists don't know the problem. (Here)[^] It's a matter of fighting a battle between science and political ambition. The constant contradictions do just what is expected, and I fear, what was intended: weaken peoples faith in institutions in which they used to have trust. Political appointees should be banished. Not only on this point but on so many incredibly disastrous results that have happened which they institute, aid, and/or abet.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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The "global" mortality rate is 1 million vs 34 million infected; or "3%" (like the US of A) Since some countries are running almost "0 %", someone else is taking up the slack. So when someone says "there isn't a problem", they're only thinking of their little bubble.
It was only in wine that he laid down no limit for himself, but he did not allow himself to be confused by it. ― Confucian Analects: Rules of Confucius about his food
Gerry Schmitz wrote:
So when someone says "there isn't a problem"
I'm not sure what extra stuff you're reading into what I posted, but I never said there is no problem. However, the problem has been tiny in my experiences and I admitted that it didn't prove anything on a global scale. Not sure what you're trying to get at.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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If there were a "weaker" US strain of the corona virus... Go to Coronavirus Update - Worldometer[^] - one of the sites that has gained a lot of reputation lately. Scroll down to the 'Reported cases' table. Click on the the header of the "Deaths / 1M pop" column to sort it on that property. Look at which countries are at the top of the list. A few countries shot like a rocket to the top in spring, partially because it wasn't clear how serious the situation was, and which precautions are necessary. Later, the growth in deaths/1M in some of these countries have been far slower. Some list top countries have health facilities far below Europe/US level, and a social structure that makes it difficult to enforce protective measures. Note that several top entries most likely have the US "weaker strain" of the virus, yet topping the Deaths/1M list. Then: The country claiming to have the best medical system, the best hospitals, the best doctors in the world: #10 on the list today, and climbing. Not long ago, it was #14, but has passed UK, Italy, Sweden... Those ahead of it include Ecuador (which may soon be overtaken), Chile, Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, ... If the US strain is weaker, and the US health system is better than anywhere else, why then does the corona virus kill far more people in the US than in the great majority of European countries, as well as in most other countries? One essential element is lifestyle. "I am free - I have a right to be infected". Obviously, that is only one element. But it is part of the problem. You may argue that "It would be even worse if we had the more aggressive European strain of the virus". Today, the US has 13 times as many deaths per million as my country. Maybe, with the European strain the US death count per million would be 20 times as high, or 30 times as high as in my country. In spite of the best hospitals in the world, the best doctors, the best testing... If the US strain is weaker, I guess US guys should be really happy that they didn't get anything more aggressive!
trønderen wrote:
why then does the corona virus kill far more people in the US
I don't know that it does. The CDC gave statistics that only 6% of those "killed by Covid" died exclusively because of Covid. The other 94% had other conditions. For some extreme examples, gunshot victims, cancer victims, heart attacks, people that are actually still alive, have all been part of the "killed by Covid" numbers. So, frankly, the numbers mean nothing. They can't be trusted.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Testing, per say, doesn't directly help anything. However, let's presume that in a given local they use the same test (or mix of tests). What then? Well - the rate of positives is an indication of how well the spread is being contained. Sure, eventually everyone will get it (or maybe a vaccine), but the point with testing is not direct prevention. It's to determine how to set the parameters to avoid overloading the medical care system. An antibody test that implies immunity would be useful in allowing those who are found to be immune (by whatever means) can modify their behavior to take advantage of their protected status - and hopefully not be jerks and become second-hand spreaders. Eventually, I hypothesize, the population will be fully exposed and it will then be left as a childhood disease - the only non-immune part of the population at that time - and small children, although virulent spreaders, rarely suffer from the disease. Until then, however, I err on the side of living cautiously whilst awaiting a real breaktrhough.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
The difficulty with interpreting the PCR test is that it doesn't tell you if a person has the active virus within them. The PCR test does not test for the presence of the virus but rather what it tells you is that an RNA sequence which matches the sequence the primers are designed for exists within the person tested. In other words, one could have had the virus a year ago and have fragments of the virus still within oneself and the PCR test could still amplify those fragments to return a positive test. From what I understand the CFR if fairly low for covid-19, but it varies so widely from 0.06% in Singapore to 18.94% in France that I really do wonder if different countries are measuring the same things Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM[^]
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
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If there were a "weaker" US strain of the corona virus... Go to Coronavirus Update - Worldometer[^] - one of the sites that has gained a lot of reputation lately. Scroll down to the 'Reported cases' table. Click on the the header of the "Deaths / 1M pop" column to sort it on that property. Look at which countries are at the top of the list. A few countries shot like a rocket to the top in spring, partially because it wasn't clear how serious the situation was, and which precautions are necessary. Later, the growth in deaths/1M in some of these countries have been far slower. Some list top countries have health facilities far below Europe/US level, and a social structure that makes it difficult to enforce protective measures. Note that several top entries most likely have the US "weaker strain" of the virus, yet topping the Deaths/1M list. Then: The country claiming to have the best medical system, the best hospitals, the best doctors in the world: #10 on the list today, and climbing. Not long ago, it was #14, but has passed UK, Italy, Sweden... Those ahead of it include Ecuador (which may soon be overtaken), Chile, Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, ... If the US strain is weaker, and the US health system is better than anywhere else, why then does the corona virus kill far more people in the US than in the great majority of European countries, as well as in most other countries? One essential element is lifestyle. "I am free - I have a right to be infected". Obviously, that is only one element. But it is part of the problem. You may argue that "It would be even worse if we had the more aggressive European strain of the virus". Today, the US has 13 times as many deaths per million as my country. Maybe, with the European strain the US death count per million would be 20 times as high, or 30 times as high as in my country. In spite of the best hospitals in the world, the best doctors, the best testing... If the US strain is weaker, I guess US guys should be really happy that they didn't get anything more aggressive!
trønderen wrote:
The country claiming to have the best medical system
Are you referring to the country that has shorter life expectancy than Lebanon? And three to five years less than most of western Europe? Linky[^] ;P
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello Never stop dreaming - Freddie Kruger
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trønderen wrote:
The country claiming to have the best medical system
Are you referring to the country that has shorter life expectancy than Lebanon? And three to five years less than most of western Europe? Linky[^] ;P
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello Never stop dreaming - Freddie Kruger
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It's not like the real scientists don't know the problem. (Here)[^] It's a matter of fighting a battle between science and political ambition. The constant contradictions do just what is expected, and I fear, what was intended: weaken peoples faith in institutions in which they used to have trust. Political appointees should be banished. Not only on this point but on so many incredibly disastrous results that have happened which they institute, aid, and/or abet.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Yeah, the self-appointed "experts" are doing us all a disservice.
#SupportHeForShe Government can give you nothing but what it takes from somebody else. A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you've got, including your freedom.-Ezra Taft Benson You must accept 1 of 2 basic premises: Either we are alone in the universe or we are not alone. Either way, the implications are staggering!-Wernher von Braun
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trønderen wrote:
why then does the corona virus kill far more people in the US
I don't know that it does. The CDC gave statistics that only 6% of those "killed by Covid" died exclusively because of Covid. The other 94% had other conditions. For some extreme examples, gunshot victims, cancer victims, heart attacks, people that are actually still alive, have all been part of the "killed by Covid" numbers. So, frankly, the numbers mean nothing. They can't be trusted.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
Sure. Like that overweight senior citizen with diabetes and too high cholesterol levels are killed by a burglar, it is not the burglar's fault, because the victim wouldn't have been living very much longer anyway. I am perfectly fine with that sort of argumentation, as long as we use the same kind of argumentation in all similar cases. Or have good arguments for why those other cases are not 'similar'.
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Sure. Like that overweight senior citizen with diabetes and too high cholesterol levels are killed by a burglar, it is not the burglar's fault, because the victim wouldn't have been living very much longer anyway. I am perfectly fine with that sort of argumentation, as long as we use the same kind of argumentation in all similar cases. Or have good arguments for why those other cases are not 'similar'.
trønderen wrote:
Like that overweight senior citizen with diabetes and too high cholesterol levels are killed by a burglar, it is not the burglar's fault, because the victim wouldn't have been living very much longer anyway.
That analogy does not work. When someone is shot and killed but had covid it gets reported as death by covid. When someone is in the hospital dying of cancer but then pick up covid while there, they did not die of covid.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Sure. Like that overweight senior citizen with diabetes and too high cholesterol levels are killed by a burglar, it is not the burglar's fault, because the victim wouldn't have been living very much longer anyway. I am perfectly fine with that sort of argumentation, as long as we use the same kind of argumentation in all similar cases. Or have good arguments for why those other cases are not 'similar'.
What ZurdoDev is referring to is the policy to count car accident victims, for example, as having died from covid if they have the virus in their system at the time dying from the car accident. Same with heart attack victims, cancer victims, etc who died from something other than the virus are counted as covid deaths if they have the virus in their system. I don't know how much that skews the numbers, but it does make one wonder...
#SupportHeForShe Government can give you nothing but what it takes from somebody else. A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you've got, including your freedom.-Ezra Taft Benson You must accept 1 of 2 basic premises: Either we are alone in the universe or we are not alone. Either way, the implications are staggering!-Wernher von Braun
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ZurdoDev wrote:
testing
The problem with the term "test" is that when it is used in the media there is no information provided relating to the specifics of the clinical test. As an example - if we are talking about a PCR test, the number of cycles carried out will have a big effect in detection of the virus. Are all laboratories using the same number of cycles? Also is there an agreed upon primer sequence design that all PCR tests for sars-cov-2 use and agree upon? I am going to guess that there is no one standard all testers adhere to with regards to primers or cycles - which would result in different test protocols between countries and possibly even within countries.
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
GuyThiebaut wrote:
The problem with the term "test" is that when it is used in the media there is no information provided relating to the specifics of the clinical test.
In the same vein: At first nobody was getting tested...the published figures were for hospitalization cases. Nowadays if anyone's infected - whether they even feel any symptom or not - they're counted. What also skews the numbers is that not every clinic in every region tracks individuals, and then share that information with each other. If you get tested multiple times at multiple locations, and you're testing positive, you're counted as that many cases.
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I have gotten it, my whole family got it, half the people at work got it, a 70 year old at work got it and was back to work in a week. It wasn't that bad. Does the US have a different version of Covid than Europe? I know my anecdotal experiences don't prove anything on a grand scale nor am I trying to, but I do find it interesting that my experiences with Covid have been so much easier than others experiences. Or, based on a thread yesterday about Subway, maybe it's because American's eat so much junk food our immune systems are stronger? :) Although I don't ever eat fast food. Schools have been back in session for 2 months and nothing has happened. I know some denser populations had some problems when school opened back up. Everyone in the world at some point will be exposed to this thing if they haven't already. Maybe it's the people that got infected early on that are having the worst time? Maybe I had already been exposed and built a little immunity but then was exposed again and again and finally got it but it wasn't that bad? Or maybe testing just doesn't work? I find it interesting how varied the experiences with Covid are throughout the world. It's easy to understand those that have been impacted hard are fearful of it and those that haven't don't worry much about it. Very interesting.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
ZurdoDev wrote:
I have gotten it, my whole family got it, half the people at work got it, a 70 year old at work got it and was back to work in a week. It wasn't that bad.
Then consider you and your close people as lucky. I consider myself very, very lucky. I have noone close to my daily life here in Germany that has had problems for covid. But... I have two cousins (mid 50) being doctors in spain, both got it at work. She needed breath assistance and he was in bed for a week (at least without assistance). He is someone that like sports and pretty active. Now (some moths later) when he tries it, he needs 3 to 5 breaks to get home using the stairs (4th floor). Regarding the statistics (from other posts in the thread) I do think too there is a difference between "killed by covid" and "died with covid", but it is really difficult to make an accurate distinction. Example: A guy that went to my school (1 year younger than me, living the parallel street behind my child address) died due to covid. He was risk group as he had something nasty before. But he was doing pretty good and the doctors gave him several years expectation. Covid didn't directly kill him, but his body got so damned weak that the other disease took over and finished the job. He might have died anyways due to that, yes, but covid reduced his life time (I would even say drastically). So I think that cases like this belong to the statistics too.
ZurdoDev wrote:
Everyone in the world at some point will be exposed to this thing
Agree.
ZurdoDev wrote:
Maybe it's the people that got infected early on that are having the worst time?
As others said, the first wave got us unprepared. Numbers got down because we started using the masks, cleaning hands many more times a day than before, keeping distance and all that annoying (but necessary) things. And... because in Sommer (north Hemisphere) people is a lot more time outside. I hope not, but I do expect another important increase in the statistics in the cold season due to being more inside in closed rooms and people getting tired of or maybe not being able to keep social distance.
ZurdoDev wrote:
Schools have been back in session for 2 months and nothing has happened. I know some denser populations had some problems when school opened back up.
Same here. We haven'
