Do you know any good Discussion Boards (or other Websites one should know who is interested in this topic) about Artificial Intelligence, where you can ask specific Questions about for example Neural Networks or also discuss General Ideas? The best i could find with Google is http://aidreams.co.uk/[^] Codeproject doesnt seem to have an AI-Subforum (Maybe it should?)

Eddy Vluggen wrote:

Computing text-similarity is easy.

Now i'm curious. How would you do that? The program doesn't have to interpret any information in the text, that's of course too difficult. If it can find a "class" of messages, that are similiar to each other and all released several hours before a rise of the price (it doesnt have to be a rise over a few hours, it could also be over a week or even a month) of the company mentioned in it, the relation should be obvious.

Eddy Vluggen wrote:

To make things worse, most of those turning-points will not be attributable to a single headline.

If enough messages are processed, maybe i can find some, which have enough relevance of their own. I know, it's not likely that my ideas are realizable, and if they are, most probably some Bank or Hedge Fund has already done it and i can't earn anything at all with my application. But i just have to try.

i'm not trying to predict future prices only based on past chart patterns (i never thought technical analysis would work). What im trying to do is finding the causes for those patterns. If a message is released exactly at the turning point of a chart and if similar chart/message patterns (i know, this is the second big difficulty: how do you define Text-Similarity?) often occur, i'd guess the probability of a similar message causing a similar chart pattern is high.

BobJanova wrote:

I'm going to guess this is to do with financial markets.

you guessed right

BobJanova wrote:

I've been there myself, and I'll warn you, those trends are not nearly so real as the eye makes them look!

Can you tell me more about it? why you think that? Do you know any good knowledge source about that topic?

BobJanova wrote:

The simplest approach is to smooth out the 'noise' (all the little bumps between B and C) by applying a moving average, gaussian smooth or similar to the data, and then look for peaks and troughs in the smoothed signal. Alternatively you can differentiate the smoothed version which will give you a trend measurement and then look for where that is positive or negative (essentially the same thing from a different angle). But that means you are applying a preconception as to what is 'noise' and what is 'real data' which obviously affects the answer you get.

will think about that. What would be a more difficult approach? thx for the answer, really helpful!

does anybody know an algorithm to recognize trends in 2-D Line charts? Something that, for example in this chart returns an array with coordinate-Pairs A/B and B/C?