Asteriod strike?
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Steve Mayfield wrote:
currently a 1 in 75 chance it may hit Mars on January 30
Doesn't this strike anyone else as odd? These 'scientists' know where Mars is (and where it will be); they know where the asteroid is (and where it will be); yet that can't say for certain that the asteroid will or will not strike the planet.
Ilíon wrote:
These 'scientists' know where Mars is (and where it will be); they know where the asteroid is (and where it will be); yet that can't say for certain that the asteroid will or will not strike the planet.
hmmm.... have you ever tried to calculate the exact position of a single vehicle using only one vantage point? Although you can extract multiple triangulation points through time as the vantage point and the object moves, it assumes you know precisely where you are down the last nanometer because every variation and error associated with the source observer position exponentially effects the calculated position of the object. we reduce error over time and repeated calculations, but can never remove it.
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
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Those Asteriods are buggers, like their near cousins the Asteroids the come crashing in and killing everything and getting all rowdy. We need to send up ships with massive lasers,to shoot them into smaller, more managable pieces. Hey doesn't that sound like a great idea for a game?
------------------------------------ I try to appear cooler, by calling him Euler.
Dalek Dave wrote:
We need to send up ships with massive lasers,to shoot them into smaller, more managable pieces.
but what if aliens in flying saucers tried to prevent us by shooting at us. Hey, we could put that in too! and make the aliens faster and move erratically in higher levels.
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
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Ilíon wrote:
at most, the gravity of Mars will affect the asteroid's trajectory
Really? You don't think the sun or Jupiter will have an effect? You don't think there is a margin of error in estimating the trajectory of an object so small that happens to be moving at high velocity millions of miles away. Also, I'm pretty sure the only estimate for the size of an asteroid at that distance is it's visual magnitude which depends on the color and reflectivity of the asteroid material adding even more uncertainty. So, no given the scale of the objects and the scale of the solar system, no it doesn't seem odd to me at all.
This blanket smells like ham
Ilíon: "How can they not already know the trajectory? . The asteroid wasn't discovered just today, it was discovered a month ago -- they know where it was a month ago and they know where it is today. These things don't weave and bob, there are no cross-winds to deflect the trajectory; at most, the gravity of Mars will affect the asteroid's trajectory (when it gets close to the planet) -- and, supposedly, Mars' mass and gravity is well understood. "
Andy Brummer wrote:
Really? You don't think the sun or Jupiter will have an effect?
You people simply refuse to think, don't you? You are so eager to demonstrate not merely your ignorance (we're all ignorant), but your Invincible Ignorance. The asteroid is already a part of the solar system.
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Ilíon: "How can they not already know the trajectory? . The asteroid wasn't discovered just today, it was discovered a month ago -- they know where it was a month ago and they know where it is today. These things don't weave and bob, there are no cross-winds to deflect the trajectory; at most, the gravity of Mars will affect the asteroid's trajectory (when it gets close to the planet) -- and, supposedly, Mars' mass and gravity is well understood. "
Andy Brummer wrote:
Really? You don't think the sun or Jupiter will have an effect?
You people simply refuse to think, don't you? You are so eager to demonstrate not merely your ignorance (we're all ignorant), but your Invincible Ignorance. The asteroid is already a part of the solar system.
Ilíon wrote:
The asteroid is already a part of the solar system.
So are you, and you're affected by the Earth's gravity.
"We were backstage, playing Monopoly. Totally forgot there was a show, so sorry we are late." - Maynard James Keenan
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Ilíon: "How can they not already know the trajectory? . The asteroid wasn't discovered just today, it was discovered a month ago -- they know where it was a month ago and they know where it is today. These things don't weave and bob, there are no cross-winds to deflect the trajectory; at most, the gravity of Mars will affect the asteroid's trajectory (when it gets close to the planet) -- and, supposedly, Mars' mass and gravity is well understood. "
Andy Brummer wrote:
Really? You don't think the sun or Jupiter will have an effect?
You people simply refuse to think, don't you? You are so eager to demonstrate not merely your ignorance (we're all ignorant), but your Invincible Ignorance. The asteroid is already a part of the solar system.
You might want to explain what "already part of the solar system" is. From the common definition, I'd guess anything within a certain radius of the sun's center is part of the solar system. Anyhow, so what? That doesn't exclude objects within the solar system from the laws of physics.
Ilíon wrote:
You people simply refuse to think, don't you?
It could be quite the contrary—you are refusing to think. In fact, you might be so full of your own sh*t that you can't see you're the only one not thinking.
ROFLOLMFAO
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Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
blather, blather, blather
Sonny Boy (like I really believe you're 14), I'm not the one who believes that "Science" == TrVth.
Supply an object to this method that will make it return
true.bool ContainsTruth(Practices area) { if (area == Practices.Science) return true; else return false; }Practicesis an enumeration. Guess the results for these:ContainsTruth(Practices.Creationism); ContainsTruth(Practices.Metaphysics);ROFLOLMFAO
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Doesn't it strike you as odd, that someone that claims to be so well versed in "logic", could have such a hard time deducing this information? :-D
-- Kein Mitleid Für Die Mehrheit
He reminds me of those Creationists. No matter how much evidence you give them, they don't get it.
ROFLOLMFAO
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Ilíon wrote:
at most, the gravity of Mars will affect the asteroid's trajectory
Really? You don't think the sun or Jupiter will have an effect? You don't think there is a margin of error in estimating the trajectory of an object so small that happens to be moving at high velocity millions of miles away. Also, I'm pretty sure the only estimate for the size of an asteroid at that distance is it's visual magnitude which depends on the color and reflectivity of the asteroid material adding even more uncertainty. So, no given the scale of the objects and the scale of the solar system, no it doesn't seem odd to me at all.
This blanket smells like ham
The main problem would be their inability to accurately produce the mass of the asteroid. Without an solid number to go off of they can't predict the asteroid orbit or path through our solar system. Depending on how long they've been tracking, it's probably a matter of needing more data points.
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Steve Mayfield wrote:
currently a 1 in 75 chance it may hit Mars on January 30
Doesn't this strike anyone else as odd? These 'scientists' know where Mars is (and where it will be); they know where the asteroid is (and where it will be); yet that can't say for certain that the asteroid will or will not strike the planet.
Elementary physics, my dear Ilíon.
We are a big screwed up dysfunctional psychotic happy family - some more screwed up, others more happy, but everybody's psychotic joint venture definition of CP
My first real C# project | Linkify!| FoldWithUs! | sighist -
Tad McClellan wrote:
The story says that the odds are supposed to go down (not a good thing for the martians) as time goes on. I suspect that as the astriod and mars move and they get more data about tragetory and that sort of thing they can get thier math more correct. Its calculas and the more data you throw into the function the better the answer. They have probably run all the probably numbers to even get the odds right so the 1 in 75 is probably best case for mars (again viewing it from teh martians perspective).
Think about this, will you? How can they not already know the trajectory? The asteroid wasn't discovered just today, it was discovered a month ago -- they know where it was a month ago and they know where it is today. These things don't weave and bob, there are no cross-winds to deflect the trajectory; at most, the gravity of Mars will affect the asteroid's trajectory (when it gets close to the planet) -- and, supposedly, Mars' mass and gravity is well understood.
modified on Friday, December 21, 2007 7:34:09 AM
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Ilíon wrote:
Sonny Boy (like I really believe you're 14)
No, because that would mean that I'm smarter than you are, and that couldn't be, could it? And I'm thirteen, by the way. Idiot.
Ilíon wrote:
I'm not the one who believes that "Science" == TrVth.
No, you believe that whatever you say is truth. I believe that science is working towards truth, and that even though it may not always be right, it constantly readjusts itself whenever truths are found. It's not as dull and stubborn as you are.
"We were backstage, playing Monopoly. Totally forgot there was a show, so sorry we are late." - Maynard James Keenan
Don't play with your food. On second thoughts do, it keeps us amused and him frustrated :laugh: Actually you are showing much greater maturity then your err...oponent. Elaine :rose:
Visit http://www.notreadytogiveup.com/[^] and do something special today.
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I suggest you study metrology - the science of measurements. Elaine :rose:
Visit http://www.notreadytogiveup.com/[^] and do something special today.
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You might want to explain what "already part of the solar system" is. From the common definition, I'd guess anything within a certain radius of the sun's center is part of the solar system. Anyhow, so what? That doesn't exclude objects within the solar system from the laws of physics.
Ilíon wrote:
You people simply refuse to think, don't you?
It could be quite the contrary—you are refusing to think. In fact, you might be so full of your own sh*t that you can't see you're the only one not thinking.
ROFLOLMFAO
Ri Qen-Sin wrote:
Anyhow, so what? That doesn't exclude objects within the solar system from the laws of physics.
Why don't you try to explain this to Mr Brummer ... and to yourself, of course? :doh: Allow me to remind you of his silly "challenge" to me: "Really? You don't think the sun or Jupiter will have an effect?" :laugh:
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Elementary physics, my dear Ilíon.
We are a big screwed up dysfunctional psychotic happy family - some more screwed up, others more happy, but everybody's psychotic joint venture definition of CP
My first real C# project | Linkify!| FoldWithUs! | sighist -
The main problem would be their inability to accurately produce the mass of the asteroid. Without an solid number to go off of they can't predict the asteroid orbit or path through our solar system. Depending on how long they've been tracking, it's probably a matter of needing more data points.
Regardless of the mass of any object, it doesn't go just bouncing around in space. You know, inertia and all that. ............... Also, this object is right in front of our eyes, so to speak. If our scientific "truth" can't determine the mass of something that can be observed up close and in real time, why would you trust that it can determine the mass of objects thousands or millions (or billions) of light years away?
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Tad McClellan wrote:
The story says that the odds are supposed to go down (not a good thing for the martians) as time goes on. I suspect that as the astriod and mars move and they get more data about tragetory and that sort of thing they can get thier math more correct. Its calculas and the more data you throw into the function the better the answer. They have probably run all the probably numbers to even get the odds right so the 1 in 75 is probably best case for mars (again viewing it from teh martians perspective).
Think about this, will you? How can they not already know the trajectory? The asteroid wasn't discovered just today, it was discovered a month ago -- they know where it was a month ago and they know where it is today. These things don't weave and bob, there are no cross-winds to deflect the trajectory; at most, the gravity of Mars will affect the asteroid's trajectory (when it gets close to the planet) -- and, supposedly, Mars' mass and gravity is well understood.
modified on Friday, December 21, 2007 7:34:09 AM
I think we have discovered the problem here. They didn't account for the gravity generated by the mass of your far superior brain. That must be effecting the path of the thing. Actually you are correct they know all those things but what they don't know is the mass of the object itself. Gravity is a two way street and the gravity of an object is based on it's mass. They actually do "weave and bob" (although not sharply of course) based on how they are effected by the gravity of other objects of around it. It's all relativity. Even light doesn't move in a straight path. It's effected by gravity as well. This is predictable but you have to understand the mass of all the objects involved.
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the odds are supposed to go down the wording is misleading...in the main text, it says the odds should diminish again early next month after getting new observations of the asteroid's orbit which means that the odds of a strike will probably become less likely...but still, the possibility of observing an asteroid strike in real time would be amazing...especially with all of the probes currently on and near Mars. I would expect that if the odds become more likely, even the Hubble would get involved.
Steve
Ah. The odds of a strike will go down, not the odds of it missing. I understand. Well, I'm sure the martians will be releaved.
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He reminds me of those Creationists. No matter how much evidence you give them, they don't get it.
ROFLOLMFAO
That's because he is one.. ;)
-- Kein Mitleid Für Die Mehrheit
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/[^] I wonder what kinda pictures the rover will get, cause its supposed to hit close to it.
It would be an extraordinary opportunity, instead of sending a Caterpillar Bulldozer to get at several meter's worth Martian soil not exposed for awhile. :-)
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Tad McClellan wrote:
The story says that the odds are supposed to go down (not a good thing for the martians) as time goes on. I suspect that as the astriod and mars move and they get more data about tragetory and that sort of thing they can get thier math more correct. Its calculas and the more data you throw into the function the better the answer. They have probably run all the probably numbers to even get the odds right so the 1 in 75 is probably best case for mars (again viewing it from teh martians perspective).
Think about this, will you? How can they not already know the trajectory? The asteroid wasn't discovered just today, it was discovered a month ago -- they know where it was a month ago and they know where it is today. These things don't weave and bob, there are no cross-winds to deflect the trajectory; at most, the gravity of Mars will affect the asteroid's trajectory (when it gets close to the planet) -- and, supposedly, Mars' mass and gravity is well understood.
modified on Friday, December 21, 2007 7:34:09 AM
Ilíon wrote:
Think about this, will you? How can they not already know the trajectory? The asteroid wasn't discovered just today, it was discovered a month ago -- they know where it was a month ago and they know where it is today. These things don't weave and bob, there are no cross-winds to deflect the trajectory; at most, the gravity of Mars will affect the asteroid's trajectory (when it gets close to the planet) -- and, supposedly, Mars' mass and gravity is well understood.
First of all, a month, in astronomical terms, is not a very long time. Second, small asteroids do in fact weave and bob. Picture this 50-meter diameter chunk of rock moving in space at 8 miles a second - not only is it moving forward but it's also rotating. And given that these things don't have an axis and can be very irregular in shape, I would imagine that it's movement looks something like a screwball heading for home plate (if you can make the baseball connection). Heck, just earlier this year scientists discovered that sunlight, yes sunlight, impacts asteroid trajectory - the subtle warming of one side changes the rotation rate and impacts the trajectory. There are many small factors that can have big effects on trajectories. My 2 cents.