Irate Rating Rant
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A nice rant, a tad inaccurate perhaps, and one I'll gladly remind you of as soon as the US looses its triple-A, which won't take long. :)
Luc Pattyn [My Articles] Nil Volentibus Arduum
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CP Vanity has been updated to V2.3Luc Pattyn wrote:
as soon as the US looses its triple-A,
I guess you missed it - a month or so ago, S&P lowered its rating on US debt. The US government did not suggest that they have a say in the ratings services because they didn't like their ratings.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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The thing is, the bond/debt rating is not about that. It's an evaluation. One can do what they want with the information (ratings seem to be rather publicly available). To maintain their business, they need to maintain their credibility. A parallel and rather dramatic example: If someone is dead, you don't evaluate them as "indisposed at this time" so that their relatives aren't upset. If they're dead, they're dead. To disguise the truth makes you untrustworthy - soon no one will listen to you - and you're done. Indeed, per your note that that 'sometimes you need to give them time', your implying that the ratings services should give them a few bonus stars so they don't make them feel bad. Perhaps this is the goal they seek?
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
No, the rating services should go on rating as they did, but the analysts should not take this as _the_ reference, but as _one_ reference among other parameters, for instance that the EU is only 50 years old and made up of many different countries. In the current scale, they expect Greece to be just as good as Germany because "they are part of the EU" ( and to be honest, even the EU expects that from itself). That's the fail.
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Actually, the rating agencies *are* seriously broken, they get payed by debt issuers to evaluate their ability to pay the debt they're about to sell. They get payed to determine the "safety" of investment funds that investment banks are about to sell. Can you spot the conflict of interest? And lets not forget, all the fund of the Lehman's Bank had AAA ratings the day before the bank went broke.
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur.
Now - here's the thing - IF the business world found them to be without credibility (for example, after the they Lehman's fund's AAA rating, then they would not care what these ratings services have to say. Self correcting, is it not? And an opportunity for all of the other services to scoop up market share as being more reliable. - - - Note, too, that when a company is audited, they are the one's who select and pay the auditor. Seems like the same conflict. Furthermore, these places give ratings without being asked (such as when they downgraded US debt).
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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No, the rating services should go on rating as they did, but the analysts should not take this as _the_ reference, but as _one_ reference among other parameters, for instance that the EU is only 50 years old and made up of many different countries. In the current scale, they expect Greece to be just as good as Germany because "they are part of the EU" ( and to be honest, even the EU expects that from itself). That's the fail.
Exactly. Hence my rant that the EU wants to have a say in what they say.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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Luc Pattyn wrote:
as soon as the US looses its triple-A,
I guess you missed it - a month or so ago, S&P lowered its rating on US debt. The US government did not suggest that they have a say in the ratings services because they didn't like their ratings.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
One of them is pretending to get in touch with reality? very good. :omg:
Luc Pattyn [My Articles] Nil Volentibus Arduum
The quality and detail of your question reflects on the effectiveness of the help you are likely to get.
Please use <PRE> tags for code snippets, they improve readability.
CP Vanity has been updated to V2.3 -
Actually, the rating agencies *are* seriously broken, they get payed by debt issuers to evaluate their ability to pay the debt they're about to sell. They get payed to determine the "safety" of investment funds that investment banks are about to sell. Can you spot the conflict of interest? And lets not forget, all the fund of the Lehman's Bank had AAA ratings the day before the bank went broke.
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur.
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One of them is pretending to get in touch with reality? very good. :omg:
Luc Pattyn [My Articles] Nil Volentibus Arduum
The quality and detail of your question reflects on the effectiveness of the help you are likely to get.
Please use <PRE> tags for code snippets, they improve readability.
CP Vanity has been updated to V2.3Not as difficult as Europe pretending to be a Union !
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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So now the EU wants to have some control of Moody's, S&P, Fitch. Apparently they don't like that they downgrade floundering EU members because, well, they're floundering. Part of the clap-trap is that it can make things worse for the downgraded nation (business) and so it's unfair. And there's also the whining that the big three mentioned (above) have too large a market share. Then they follow up with the 'they're partisan' in their decision making. They seem to want to replace this with their own judgement as to what's best for the market (translation: artificially upgrading EU entities so they can claim they're doing a great job with the economy). That seems to be the EU's answer to anything in which they can't compete. No one makes anyone accept the ratings - it's their own businessmen who respect the ratings because they have found them to be (get this) accurate. But let me bestow upon you, oh Oracles of Brussels, the following hint: if you don't down-grade nations and business when they're not doing well (and thus the credit risk increases) - no one's going to listen to you because they can't trust you. Maybe that's why your own ratings services are left to fight over the scraps at the edge of the table: they're not perceived as credible. Look - bottom line - when the EU economies are a shining example of cooperation and success, then get back to me.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Shouldn't the EU be getting back to making absurd and pointless demands on software companies 5 years after the horse has already bolted?
cheers, Chris Maunder The Code Project | Co-founder Microsoft C++ MVP
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"if you don't down-grade nations and business when they're not doing well" need I quote more?
Luc Pattyn [My Articles] Nil Volentibus Arduum
The quality and detail of your question reflects on the effectiveness of the help you are likely to get.
Please use <PRE> tags for code snippets, they improve readability.
CP Vanity has been updated to V2.3 -
Luc Pattyn wrote:
as soon as the US looses its triple-A,
I guess you missed it - a month or so ago, S&P lowered its rating on US debt. The US government did not suggest that they have a say in the ratings services because they didn't like their ratings.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
No, they lowered its outlook. Which means they think it's more likely they'll have to lower it in the future. Can't say I blame them, both groups of morons in DC are more interested in scoring partisan points off the others back than actually admitting they have a problem.:mad:
3x12=36 2x12=24 1x12=12 0x12=18
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Shouldn't the EU be getting back to making absurd and pointless demands on software companies 5 years after the horse has already bolted?
cheers, Chris Maunder The Code Project | Co-founder Microsoft C++ MVP
I had actually written/cancelled a response noting how the EU loves to give Micro$oft huge fines for monopolistic practices when other alternative exist - Apple's if you wish to pay more, and a world of free Linux systems. I don't see anything like a monopoly. If European manufacturers exclusively install Windows on the systems, then shouldn't they be the ones being fined? The did the same crap with Genetically Engineered plants - they made them impossible to grow in the EU, and the import of such products very difficult - which (as usual) eased up dramatically when the European companies developed their own alternatives. I'd like to see the Brussels Gang open their mouth's up to Japan and China (and their closed markets). [Hold down shift key and hit top row of keys . . . ]
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
"if you don't down-grade nations and business when they're not doing well" need I quote more?
Luc Pattyn [My Articles] Nil Volentibus Arduum
The quality and detail of your question reflects on the effectiveness of the help you are likely to get.
Please use <PRE> tags for code snippets, they improve readability.
CP Vanity has been updated to V2.3 -
Shouldn't the EU be getting back to making absurd and pointless demands on software companies 5 years after the horse has already bolted?
cheers, Chris Maunder The Code Project | Co-founder Microsoft C++ MVP
EU governance. Unelected. Unwanted. Over here.
Forgive your enemies - it messes with their heads
My blog | My articles | MoXAML PowerToys | Mole 2010 - debugging made easier - my favourite utility
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No, they lowered its outlook. Which means they think it's more likely they'll have to lower it in the future. Can't say I blame them, both groups of morons in DC are more interested in scoring partisan points off the others back than actually admitting they have a problem.:mad:
3x12=36 2x12=24 1x12=12 0x12=18
Here's the thing - - the way the markets work, lowering the outlook is effectively/functionally identical to lowering the ratings. In essence, they're saying they will downgrade the debt . . . so if you were an investor, would you pay more now knowing it is predicted to lose value? The Jerks in DC - now there's something we can both agree on. That includes the new Tea-Party jerks, who (Surprise! Surprise!) added pork to a defense bill that benefited to their districts. It doesn't take deep hindsight to realize that Bush & Co. did more harm to the US and World economies than Bin Liden could have imagined in a wet dream.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
So now the EU wants to have some control of Moody's, S&P, Fitch. Apparently they don't like that they downgrade floundering EU members because, well, they're floundering. Part of the clap-trap is that it can make things worse for the downgraded nation (business) and so it's unfair. And there's also the whining that the big three mentioned (above) have too large a market share. Then they follow up with the 'they're partisan' in their decision making. They seem to want to replace this with their own judgement as to what's best for the market (translation: artificially upgrading EU entities so they can claim they're doing a great job with the economy). That seems to be the EU's answer to anything in which they can't compete. No one makes anyone accept the ratings - it's their own businessmen who respect the ratings because they have found them to be (get this) accurate. But let me bestow upon you, oh Oracles of Brussels, the following hint: if you don't down-grade nations and business when they're not doing well (and thus the credit risk increases) - no one's going to listen to you because they can't trust you. Maybe that's why your own ratings services are left to fight over the scraps at the edge of the table: they're not perceived as credible. Look - bottom line - when the EU economies are a shining example of cooperation and success, then get back to me.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
I think you'll find that it's more to do with the small fact that the ratings agencies gave triple-A ratings to "securities" that were obviously extremely high risk, and that it was those ratings that led to the ridiculously high confidence in the "securities" that caused the total meltdown, not so long ago. i.e. The ratings agencies were directly responsible for millions of people losing their homes, jobs, and livelihoods, but have accepted none of the responsibility (they argue that their ratings are only their "opinion", so if people believe them and screw up, it's their own fault). If you think that's OK, then I hope you're not one of those who loses his home, job, and livelihood, the next time their "opinions" cause such a global financial catastrophe.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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I think you'll find that it's more to do with the small fact that the ratings agencies gave triple-A ratings to "securities" that were obviously extremely high risk, and that it was those ratings that led to the ridiculously high confidence in the "securities" that caused the total meltdown, not so long ago. i.e. The ratings agencies were directly responsible for millions of people losing their homes, jobs, and livelihoods, but have accepted none of the responsibility (they argue that their ratings are only their "opinion", so if people believe them and screw up, it's their own fault). If you think that's OK, then I hope you're not one of those who loses his home, job, and livelihood, the next time their "opinions" cause such a global financial catastrophe.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
Mark Wallace wrote:
If you think that's OK
No - I don't think it's OK. But that's not the question and I'm not the one (implicitly) to ask. If they were inept (and they were - or criminal) then their ratings should be ignored. If they were given false information by the financial institutions, then those submitting the data should be both impoverished and jailed. But - giving governments a say - and thus political expediency - is worse than anything. Just close them down, instead.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
So now the EU wants to have some control of Moody's, S&P, Fitch. Apparently they don't like that they downgrade floundering EU members because, well, they're floundering. Part of the clap-trap is that it can make things worse for the downgraded nation (business) and so it's unfair. And there's also the whining that the big three mentioned (above) have too large a market share. Then they follow up with the 'they're partisan' in their decision making. They seem to want to replace this with their own judgement as to what's best for the market (translation: artificially upgrading EU entities so they can claim they're doing a great job with the economy). That seems to be the EU's answer to anything in which they can't compete. No one makes anyone accept the ratings - it's their own businessmen who respect the ratings because they have found them to be (get this) accurate. But let me bestow upon you, oh Oracles of Brussels, the following hint: if you don't down-grade nations and business when they're not doing well (and thus the credit risk increases) - no one's going to listen to you because they can't trust you. Maybe that's why your own ratings services are left to fight over the scraps at the edge of the table: they're not perceived as credible. Look - bottom line - when the EU economies are a shining example of cooperation and success, then get back to me.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
A futile exercise, a "free" market will continue to operate the way it has been, in the best interest of individual entities. These rating will have less influence on the markets than Justin Beiber's haircut.
Craigslist Troll: litaly@comcast.net "I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson
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Here's the thing - - the way the markets work, lowering the outlook is effectively/functionally identical to lowering the ratings. In essence, they're saying they will downgrade the debt . . . so if you were an investor, would you pay more now knowing it is predicted to lose value? The Jerks in DC - now there's something we can both agree on. That includes the new Tea-Party jerks, who (Surprise! Surprise!) added pork to a defense bill that benefited to their districts. It doesn't take deep hindsight to realize that Bush & Co. did more harm to the US and World economies than Bin Liden could have imagined in a wet dream.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Balboos wrote:
- the way the markets work, lowering the outlook is effectively/functionally identical to lowering the ratings. In essence, they're saying they will downgrade the debt . . . so if you were an investor, would you pay more now knowing it is predicted to lose value?
Incorrect. Lowering the outlook is basically saying, "If this keeps up, we might have to downgrade them in the next couple years." In essence, it's a warning to the government... "Fix your problems, or we'll have to downgrade you."
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
An economist is someone who can explain you why what he told you two months ago did not happen.
Just like the weatherman. I think the two professoins use the "magic 8 ball[^]" for providing answers. :laugh:
Chris Meech I am Canadian. [heard in a local bar] In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. [Yogi Berra] posting about Crystal Reports here is like discussing gay marriage on a catholic church’s website.[Nishant Sivakumar]
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Mark Wallace wrote:
If you think that's OK
No - I don't think it's OK. But that's not the question and I'm not the one (implicitly) to ask. If they were inept (and they were - or criminal) then their ratings should be ignored. If they were given false information by the financial institutions, then those submitting the data should be both impoverished and jailed. But - giving governments a say - and thus political expediency - is worse than anything. Just close them down, instead.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
It's not a case of giving governments a say; it's a matter of making them answerable for their "opinions".
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!