I went to the soapbox to find lively conversation and found crickets
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Eddy Vluggen wrote:
and can confirm the trend.
My argument is ERBE shows a warming trend. How is this a counter argument if it agrees? :)
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
You otoh have gone from denying GW
No I have not.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
AGW
No I have not.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
now it is CAGW
It always has been. Let me lay it out for you again. 1) The earth has warmed 2) man has played a part (97% of scientists think this too. Doram Zimmerman poll). However that warming by man is not great, and is certainly not catastrophic. Is it so hard to understand that there is middle ground? :)
Munchies_Matt wrote:
However that warming by man is not great, and is certainly not catastrophic.
Any change is catastrophic, as already explained in terms that a five-year old can understand. You were saying?
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Munchies_Matt wrote:
However that warming by man is not great, and is certainly not catastrophic.
Any change is catastrophic, as already explained in terms that a five-year old can understand. You were saying?
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
You did indeed use a five year olds logic to try to make that connection.... Of course not all change is catastrophic. Did the change from the end of the ice age to today result in catastrophe? No. Did the change over the last 100 years do so? No. Would a new ice age be? Yes. Northern Europe sitting under a 2 mile thick ice sheet. That is catastrophic.
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You did indeed use a five year olds logic to try to make that connection.... Of course not all change is catastrophic. Did the change from the end of the ice age to today result in catastrophe? No. Did the change over the last 100 years do so? No. Would a new ice age be? Yes. Northern Europe sitting under a 2 mile thick ice sheet. That is catastrophic.
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Northern Europe sitting under a 2 mile thick ice sheet. That is catastrophic.
Northern Europe having to harvest early due to drought isn't? :laugh:
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Munchies_Matt wrote:
Northern Europe sitting under a 2 mile thick ice sheet. That is catastrophic.
Northern Europe having to harvest early due to drought isn't? :laugh:
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
And they can harvest early because the produce is ripe. Due to warmth. Slam dunk, and he rams it home. In his own goal. Well done! :laugh: :laugh:
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And they can harvest early because the produce is ripe. Due to warmth. Slam dunk, and he rams it home. In his own goal. Well done! :laugh: :laugh:
Munchies_Matt wrote:
And they can harvest early because the produce is ripe. Due to warmth.
Not ripe, but having some harvest is better than none. Watch the price of potatoes, and see how "beneficial" the warming is :)
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Munchies_Matt wrote:
However that warming by man is not great, and is certainly not catastrophic.
Any change is catastrophic, as already explained in terms that a five-year old can understand. You were saying?
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Any change is catastrophic
Only to snowflakes. :-D
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
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:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
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Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Any change is catastrophic
Only to snowflakes. :-D
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Munchies_Matt wrote:
And they can harvest early because the produce is ripe. Due to warmth.
Not ripe, but having some harvest is better than none. Watch the price of potatoes, and see how "beneficial" the warming is :)
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
Oh, so you have proof they are harvesting unripe wheat? (Potatoes and beat are harvested in October. And it has started raining. )
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You like that one? There is double meaning in it. :-\
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
Yes, pretty obvious. :)
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Oh, so you have proof they are harvesting unripe wheat? (Potatoes and beat are harvested in October. And it has started raining. )
Droogte stuwt prijs oude aardappeloogst - Boerderij.nl[^] Zeeuwse boeren oogsten mais eerder vanwege ernstige droogte - Dit is Midden-Zeeland[^]
With the prospect of the further drought of the coming weeks, many farmers have chosen eggs for their money. They decided to harvest their crops earlier, so that the damage is limited. Because of the heavy rain in the beginning of the season and the prolonged drought, the crops did not get a chance to grow. Because of the drought the corn plants even dry out and they do not have the yield they normally have. The size of the damage of the drought in total is not yet known.
Those who planted wine-grapes are having an unexpected good harvest. So while food-prices go up, at least we'll have enough wine.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Droogte stuwt prijs oude aardappeloogst - Boerderij.nl[^] Zeeuwse boeren oogsten mais eerder vanwege ernstige droogte - Dit is Midden-Zeeland[^]
With the prospect of the further drought of the coming weeks, many farmers have chosen eggs for their money. They decided to harvest their crops earlier, so that the damage is limited. Because of the heavy rain in the beginning of the season and the prolonged drought, the crops did not get a chance to grow. Because of the drought the corn plants even dry out and they do not have the yield they normally have. The size of the damage of the drought in total is not yet known.
Those who planted wine-grapes are having an unexpected good harvest. So while food-prices go up, at least we'll have enough wine.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
So the potato price spiked this week at 9 euros a 100 kgs, instead of 4, and that is a catastrophe is it? But regardless, what has one years freak event, repeated ever few decades or so, got to do with climate?
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So the potato price spiked this week at 9 euros a 100 kgs, instead of 4, and that is a catastrophe is it? But regardless, what has one years freak event, repeated ever few decades or so, got to do with climate?
Munchies_Matt wrote:
It has started raining though, a few weeks back.
Not enough to save the harvest, and the measures put in place by the government to save water still remain active. Pests like blue algae thrive; causing a lot of fish to die. Must be beneficial, because "you said so" :suss:
Munchies_Matt wrote:
But regardless, what has one years freak event, repeated ever few decades or so, got to do with climate?
As explained a thousand times before; it is not a freak-year, there is a trend. You can look at the trend by plotting the raw measurements in Excel.
Munchies_Matt wrote:
But in fact wheat is ripe, many fruits are too (the apples in my garden in the UK are ready, weeks ahead of normal).
And we all know that most livestock is fed with apples and grapes :D
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Munchies_Matt wrote:
It has started raining though, a few weeks back.
Not enough to save the harvest, and the measures put in place by the government to save water still remain active. Pests like blue algae thrive; causing a lot of fish to die. Must be beneficial, because "you said so" :suss:
Munchies_Matt wrote:
But regardless, what has one years freak event, repeated ever few decades or so, got to do with climate?
As explained a thousand times before; it is not a freak-year, there is a trend. You can look at the trend by plotting the raw measurements in Excel.
Munchies_Matt wrote:
But in fact wheat is ripe, many fruits are too (the apples in my garden in the UK are ready, weeks ahead of normal).
And we all know that most livestock is fed with apples and grapes :D
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
As explained a thousand times before
No you havent, and this is a typical technique used to claim an argument is already won.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
it is not a freak-year
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: It is a freak year. Hasnt been this hot since 1976. Before that was in the 30s I believe. It is a freak year. The trend in global crop yields is up.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
there is a trend
There is a general trend in rising temperature since the 60s, but you are talking about a year that has been very dry. And that is the problem for crops, not the temperature. The actual temperature for July was not that hot: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2018_v6.jpg
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
most livestock
So moved on to cows have you? They are fed on grass. This year farmers are using winter silage because the grass has pretty much given up due to the drought. So, how much has the p;rice of milk gone up by? HOw much has the price of beef gone up by? Like your potatoes, that spiked at 9 euros a 100 kgs, foir a day or so, where is the catastrophe you promised?
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Eddy Vluggen wrote:
As explained a thousand times before
No you havent, and this is a typical technique used to claim an argument is already won.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
it is not a freak-year
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: It is a freak year. Hasnt been this hot since 1976. Before that was in the 30s I believe. It is a freak year. The trend in global crop yields is up.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
there is a trend
There is a general trend in rising temperature since the 60s, but you are talking about a year that has been very dry. And that is the problem for crops, not the temperature. The actual temperature for July was not that hot: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2018_v6.jpg
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
most livestock
So moved on to cows have you? They are fed on grass. This year farmers are using winter silage because the grass has pretty much given up due to the drought. So, how much has the p;rice of milk gone up by? HOw much has the price of beef gone up by? Like your potatoes, that spiked at 9 euros a 100 kgs, foir a day or so, where is the catastrophe you promised?
Munchies_Matt wrote:
No you havent, and this is a typical technique used to claim an argument is already won.
No, it isn't. It is a technique to prevent you from rehashing all that has been written in the previous threads.
Munchies_Matt wrote:
It is a freak year. The trend in global crop yields is up.
Data says there's no freak year, unless you want to label the past 20 years like that :)
Munchies_Matt wrote:
There is a general trend in rising temperature since the 60s, but you are talking about a year that has been very dry. And that is the problem for crops, not the temperature.
Hot summers usually come with less rain. Go ahead and explain to our farmers how it is not a problem :thumbsup:
Munchies_Matt wrote:
So moved on to cows have you? They are fed on grass. This year farmers are using winter silage because the grass has pretty much given up due to the drought. So, how much has the p;rice of milk gone up by? HOw much has the price of beef gone up by?
Prices move slower than that; todays meat in the supermarket is not eating todays gras. Wait a few months and prices will move :)
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Like your potatoes, that spiked at 9 euros a 100 kgs, foir a day or so, where is the catastrophe you promised?
Given the current trend, I'd say it is only a few years away.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Munchies_Matt wrote:
No you havent, and this is a typical technique used to claim an argument is already won.
No, it isn't. It is a technique to prevent you from rehashing all that has been written in the previous threads.
Munchies_Matt wrote:
It is a freak year. The trend in global crop yields is up.
Data says there's no freak year, unless you want to label the past 20 years like that :)
Munchies_Matt wrote:
There is a general trend in rising temperature since the 60s, but you are talking about a year that has been very dry. And that is the problem for crops, not the temperature.
Hot summers usually come with less rain. Go ahead and explain to our farmers how it is not a problem :thumbsup:
Munchies_Matt wrote:
So moved on to cows have you? They are fed on grass. This year farmers are using winter silage because the grass has pretty much given up due to the drought. So, how much has the p;rice of milk gone up by? HOw much has the price of beef gone up by?
Prices move slower than that; todays meat in the supermarket is not eating todays gras. Wait a few months and prices will move :)
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Like your potatoes, that spiked at 9 euros a 100 kgs, foir a day or so, where is the catastrophe you promised?
Given the current trend, I'd say it is only a few years away.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Data says there's no freak year,
Who is Data and why does his opinion differ from everyone else's, that 2018 is a freak year for warmth and dryness in western europe? :)
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Hot summers usually come with less rain
Freak hot summer like this one? Yes. Obviously, since less clouds means more warmth at the surface. In general though there has been no change in rainfall as the surface has warmed over the last century/
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Prices move slower than that;
Actually people buy goods today if the price is expected to be higher tomorrow so they can save money/make a profit. This pushes up today's prices. It is called speculation. A futures market. Why do you think your link to potato prices showed a spike even though potatoes are harvested in August? Why has that spike come down? Because of the recent change in weather. It has started raining.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
I'd say it is only a few years away
I am sure we will be around for a few more years. We can all laugh at your chicken little terror then. :)
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Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Data says there's no freak year,
Who is Data and why does his opinion differ from everyone else's, that 2018 is a freak year for warmth and dryness in western europe? :)
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Hot summers usually come with less rain
Freak hot summer like this one? Yes. Obviously, since less clouds means more warmth at the surface. In general though there has been no change in rainfall as the surface has warmed over the last century/
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Prices move slower than that;
Actually people buy goods today if the price is expected to be higher tomorrow so they can save money/make a profit. This pushes up today's prices. It is called speculation. A futures market. Why do you think your link to potato prices showed a spike even though potatoes are harvested in August? Why has that spike come down? Because of the recent change in weather. It has started raining.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
I'd say it is only a few years away
I am sure we will be around for a few more years. We can all laugh at your chicken little terror then. :)
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Who is Data and why does his opinion differ from everyone else's, that 2018 is a freak year for warmth and dryness in western europe? :)
Doesn't differ from everybody elses; people call it a freak-year because the weather seems freaky - not because it is an exception. Raw measurements are available, and it shows that this year is still in line with the warming trend.
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Freak hot summer like this one? Yes. Obviously, since less clouds means more warmth at the surface. In general though there has been no change in rainfall as the surface has warmed over the last century/
Haha, even without GW has there been a change in rainfall-patterns :D
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Actually people buy goods today if the price is expected to be higher tomorrow so they can save money/make a profit. This pushes up today's prices. It is called speculation. A futures market. Why do you think your link to potato prices showed a spike even though potatoes are harvested in August? Why has that spike come down? Because of the recent change in weather. It has started raining.
Prices in the supermarket react slower than the commodities exchange. The recent rain might have given investors the idea that there will be more produce, but that is why we call it "speculation".
Munchies_Matt wrote:
I am sure we will be around for a few more years. We can all laugh at your chicken little terror then. :)
I didn't say we wouldn't be around; but the standard of living will decline, due to a combination of GW and economics. MIT puts it near 2020; I'm a bit more optimistic.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Munchies_Matt wrote:
Who is Data and why does his opinion differ from everyone else's, that 2018 is a freak year for warmth and dryness in western europe? :)
Doesn't differ from everybody elses; people call it a freak-year because the weather seems freaky - not because it is an exception. Raw measurements are available, and it shows that this year is still in line with the warming trend.
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Freak hot summer like this one? Yes. Obviously, since less clouds means more warmth at the surface. In general though there has been no change in rainfall as the surface has warmed over the last century/
Haha, even without GW has there been a change in rainfall-patterns :D
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Actually people buy goods today if the price is expected to be higher tomorrow so they can save money/make a profit. This pushes up today's prices. It is called speculation. A futures market. Why do you think your link to potato prices showed a spike even though potatoes are harvested in August? Why has that spike come down? Because of the recent change in weather. It has started raining.
Prices in the supermarket react slower than the commodities exchange. The recent rain might have given investors the idea that there will be more produce, but that is why we call it "speculation".
Munchies_Matt wrote:
I am sure we will be around for a few more years. We can all laugh at your chicken little terror then. :)
I didn't say we wouldn't be around; but the standard of living will decline, due to a combination of GW and economics. MIT puts it near 2020; I'm a bit more optimistic.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Doesn't differ from everybody elses; people call it a freak-year
you two posts ago: "Data says there's no freak year," :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Wake up Eddie!
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
even without GW has there been a change in rainfall-patterns
How can anyone know that, since the earth has warmed. ANyway it is irrelevant, there has been no change in rainfall patterns, answer my point instead of wandering off into irrelevancy.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Prices in the supermarket react slower
But do react: Supply fears push up Meadow Foods milk price - Farmers Weekly[^]
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
the standard of living will decline, due to a combination of GW and economics.
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Now you bring in economics eh? Why, not so confident in your chicken little AGW fear?
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Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Doesn't differ from everybody elses; people call it a freak-year
you two posts ago: "Data says there's no freak year," :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Wake up Eddie!
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
even without GW has there been a change in rainfall-patterns
How can anyone know that, since the earth has warmed. ANyway it is irrelevant, there has been no change in rainfall patterns, answer my point instead of wandering off into irrelevancy.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Prices in the supermarket react slower
But do react: Supply fears push up Meadow Foods milk price - Farmers Weekly[^]
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
the standard of living will decline, due to a combination of GW and economics.
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Now you bring in economics eh? Why, not so confident in your chicken little AGW fear?
Munchies_Matt wrote:
you two posts ago: "Data says there's no freak year,"
It is not according to the data, it is in line with a warming trend. Doesn't stop the general public from saying that we have had yet another freak year.
Munchies_Matt wrote:
How can anyone know that, since the earth has warmed.
"Science".
Munchies_Matt wrote:
ANyway it is irrelevant, there has been no change in rainfall patterns
They have been documented, and is part of modern education in schools :)
Munchies_Matt wrote:
But do react: Supply fears push up Meadow Foods milk price - Farmers Weekly[^]
Yes, eventually. Supermarkets (and other vendors) also tend to "smear out" the price-raise over a longer time-period, so the customer doesn't notice too much.
Munchies_Matt wrote:
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Now you bring in economics eh? Why, not so confident in your chicken little AGW fear?
We were already talking about economics, when the price of potatoes was brought up. :)
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^] "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
