Quo Vadis, Britain
-
Now, landsmen all, whoever you may be, If you want to rise to the top of the tree, If your soul isn’t fettered to an office stool, Be careful to be guided by this golden rule – Stick close to your desks and never go to sea, And you all may be rulers of the Queen’s Navee! --G&S, HMS Pinafore
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.
Well, at least someone recognized it. Hoorah! Hoorah! Hooray!
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
From the referendum. I fact it was nearer 52%
But in your earlier message[^], you agreed with Guy that people's opinions have probably changed over the last two years of farcical "Brexit negotiations". So whichever way you think it's swung, it's unlikely to still be the same split. :) (I'm ignoring the fact that "people who voted in the referendum" is a subset of "the British public". We'll assume it was a statistically relevant sample, and the result can probably be extrapolated to the population as a whole.)
"These people looked deep within my soul and assigned me a number based on the order in which I joined." - Homer
-
But in your earlier message[^], you agreed with Guy that people's opinions have probably changed over the last two years of farcical "Brexit negotiations". So whichever way you think it's swung, it's unlikely to still be the same split. :) (I'm ignoring the fact that "people who voted in the referendum" is a subset of "the British public". We'll assume it was a statistically relevant sample, and the result can probably be extrapolated to the population as a whole.)
"These people looked deep within my soul and assigned me a number based on the order in which I joined." - Homer
So we know it is 52%, and has most likely swung to a stronger Brexit stance since. Crucially this is very different to what MPs think. Very few are Brexiters, like 80%+ are remainers. This is the problem getting Mays (fair) Brexit deal through the commons. They dont represent the people at all. As it is, if they dont compromise, and accept the will of the people, and that it has to be a soft brexit to give everyone 90% of what they want, then we will be in limbo until something drastic happens: 1) Civil unrest. If we dont exit then the populace is going to be mighty pissed off at MPs 2) The Queen dissolves parliament because it no longer reflects the will of the people, and new (more pro brexit MPs) get elected. These are both extreme outcomes, but if MPs continue to ignore the will of the people then extreme measures are called for. Of course the could just grow up, get together, and find the common ground. Yeah, fat chance! Bunch of moronic children that they are.
-
Not really, they started the process of ratification already. [EU urges UK government to clarify Brexit intentions – POLITICO](https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-urges-uk-government-to-clarify-brexit-intentions/) Of the existing May deal, the one the parliament rejected. There is no going back. This is not the local municipality negotiating hydro rates. Here some additional explanation: [Britain enters the 'Greek fallacy' phase of Brexit - Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/britain-enters-greek-fallacy-phase-of-brexit-2018-11)
It's politics. Whoever thinks they've the better hand calls . . . Ratification of something that's not accepted by the other side? Ludicrous comes to mind. The UK, both sides, are against it to a major extent. There are but two options left: 1 - come up with something that will pass Parliament 2 - no-deal Brexit . . . which means no UK money, either. If the Brit's are foolish enough to call another election, I would heartily support the insurrection that may result. They voted. The people spoke. Exhausting them into submission is quite outrageous. Really - after the hype dies down - "no deal" will work out just fine as it is in everyone's interests to do what we call in the states a "continuing resolution" so both sides don't bleed excessively. Meanwhile . . . admittedly on the far right . . . the seeds of Dexit are sprouting.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
It's politics. Whoever thinks they've the better hand calls . . . Ratification of something that's not accepted by the other side? Ludicrous comes to mind. The UK, both sides, are against it to a major extent. There are but two options left: 1 - come up with something that will pass Parliament 2 - no-deal Brexit . . . which means no UK money, either. If the Brit's are foolish enough to call another election, I would heartily support the insurrection that may result. They voted. The people spoke. Exhausting them into submission is quite outrageous. Really - after the hype dies down - "no deal" will work out just fine as it is in everyone's interests to do what we call in the states a "continuing resolution" so both sides don't bleed excessively. Meanwhile . . . admittedly on the far right . . . the seeds of Dexit are sprouting.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
It was accepted by both sides, by the negotiators of both governments. Negotiations are over and the EU has 27 member states and each individual parliament has to ratify it. Takes time and it runs out in 2 months. It's not ludicrous. One side will always be the first one to ratify it, unless they somehow synchronise their clocks :)
-
So we know it is 52%, and has most likely swung to a stronger Brexit stance since. Crucially this is very different to what MPs think. Very few are Brexiters, like 80%+ are remainers. This is the problem getting Mays (fair) Brexit deal through the commons. They dont represent the people at all. As it is, if they dont compromise, and accept the will of the people, and that it has to be a soft brexit to give everyone 90% of what they want, then we will be in limbo until something drastic happens: 1) Civil unrest. If we dont exit then the populace is going to be mighty pissed off at MPs 2) The Queen dissolves parliament because it no longer reflects the will of the people, and new (more pro brexit MPs) get elected. These are both extreme outcomes, but if MPs continue to ignore the will of the people then extreme measures are called for. Of course the could just grow up, get together, and find the common ground. Yeah, fat chance! Bunch of moronic children that they are.
-
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Of course the could just grow up, get together, and find the common ground. Yeah, fat chance! Bunch of moronic children that they are.
You could vote them out of office at the next opportunity...
The next election is 2022. The British public, who voted leave, will not accept waiting until then to have their say. Instead there will be civil unrest, and it will be supported by society as a whole forcing their hand.
-
It was accepted by both sides, by the negotiators of both governments. Negotiations are over and the EU has 27 member states and each individual parliament has to ratify it. Takes time and it runs out in 2 months. It's not ludicrous. One side will always be the first one to ratify it, unless they somehow synchronise their clocks :)
Urban Cricket wrote:
by the negotiators of both governments
You do realize that the negotiators aren't the ratifiers? If they were - if their deal was the done-deal - than Parliament(s) wouldn't need to vote on it, would they? So - it's a proposal that was agreed upon by the negotiators. Nothing more. So - the EU said that's the final offer. MP's said "screw that". Now we have the two options as in from my previous post: new negotiations or just a clean break. Then they can scramble to pick up the pieces.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
Actually - this is an gloriously interesting outcome. The EU said that the offer (just soundly rejected - here here !) was it - no more negotiations. They threw the ball over to the UK as take it or leave it. Well - now the balls really back in their court. Because the left it. So - suck it up and make changes or have no exit strategy. They have to decide how much pain their pride is worth. . . . and now I am the ruler of the Queen's Navy . . .
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Not really, they started the process of ratification already. [EU urges UK government to clarify Brexit intentions – POLITICO](https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-urges-uk-government-to-clarify-brexit-intentions/) Of the existing May deal, the one the parliament rejected. There is no going back. This is not the local municipality negotiating hydro rates. Here some additional explanation: [Britain enters the 'Greek fallacy' phase of Brexit - Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/britain-enters-greek-fallacy-phase-of-brexit-2018-11)
-
The next election is 2022. The British public, who voted leave, will not accept waiting until then to have their say. Instead there will be civil unrest, and it will be supported by society as a whole forcing their hand.
-
Welcome to the joys of a representative government. When was the last election? Before or after the Brexit referendum? Did MP candidates voice their Brexit intentions during the campaign?
Very recent, but you have in each seat (a geographical area) ONE member from each party. But brexit isnt about parties, it is about yes or no. For example Mansfield, old coal mining seat, voted Tory for the first time since the 12th century, because they are a hard Brexit area and their Labour guy was a remainer. Kensington, famous for being rich, voted Labour, because they are urban, intellectual, remainers! The problem is that May, as a tory, with a Brexit manifesto, was voted for by the public through the default Tory MP for their region (as with Mansfield). However many Tory MPs are remainers, and are NOT voting for Mays deal! If the Queen dissolves parliament then what happens? Do we elect new MPs? Surely we cant, that is a new government election. OR do we just replace the MPs in some way. Does May replace them with Brexiet MPs, are there enough? Are people given the choice in their seat of two MPs of the same party as they voted for in the last general election, one Brexit, one remain? This is why MPs have to find common ground and go for something like Mays deal, a compromise, as it does give everyone 90% of what they want. If they dont then the entire system is in a complete mess, with civil unrest due in a few months.
-
Very recent, but you have in each seat (a geographical area) ONE member from each party. But brexit isnt about parties, it is about yes or no. For example Mansfield, old coal mining seat, voted Tory for the first time since the 12th century, because they are a hard Brexit area and their Labour guy was a remainer. Kensington, famous for being rich, voted Labour, because they are urban, intellectual, remainers! The problem is that May, as a tory, with a Brexit manifesto, was voted for by the public through the default Tory MP for their region (as with Mansfield). However many Tory MPs are remainers, and are NOT voting for Mays deal! If the Queen dissolves parliament then what happens? Do we elect new MPs? Surely we cant, that is a new government election. OR do we just replace the MPs in some way. Does May replace them with Brexiet MPs, are there enough? Are people given the choice in their seat of two MPs of the same party as they voted for in the last general election, one Brexit, one remain? This is why MPs have to find common ground and go for something like Mays deal, a compromise, as it does give everyone 90% of what they want. If they dont then the entire system is in a complete mess, with civil unrest due in a few months.
-
Throw together a quick 2nd binding referendum. Not about Brexit or Remain. Instead the choice is accept May's negotiated Brexit or hard Brexit. It forces the people's choice and it teaches the MPs that they need to respect the people's wishes.
The MPs would still try to kill it, the vast majority want to remain. Why? More govt = more politics = more political careers to be made. I told my MP to accept the deal (she is actually a hard brexiter), purely because there HAS to be compromise otherwise it will never get through the house. She told me she wouldnt. (Mays deal as one thing no one likes, the Irish border issue. It says we leave now, but stay in the customs union for 2 more years while we sort out a trade deal. If we dont, and end up outside the union, then northern ireland must be left behind inside the union. This puts a border inside the UK, and no one is happy with it. If this aspect was scraped, and there is no reason a hard border inside Ireland should be a problem, then more people would vote for it, so the EU needs to do a bit of compromising too.) (The fear over a hard border in Ireland is that it will encourage religious violence to rise up like it was in the 70s)
-
Oi! Who are you calling pig headed and stubborn? I demand an apology and won't navigate away from this page until I see one - oink oink!
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
TBH you look more French to me. :)
-
Urban Cricket wrote:
by the negotiators of both governments
You do realize that the negotiators aren't the ratifiers? If they were - if their deal was the done-deal - than Parliament(s) wouldn't need to vote on it, would they? So - it's a proposal that was agreed upon by the negotiators. Nothing more. So - the EU said that's the final offer. MP's said "screw that". Now we have the two options as in from my previous post: new negotiations or just a clean break. Then they can scramble to pick up the pieces.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Well, as the EU said, the negotiations are over, there is a 600 pages document that was negotiated for 2 years that needs ratification. I don't believe they will reopen anything within the next 2 months. If the UK wants renegotiation, they will have to postpone the Brexit. Postponing it is although depending on the unanimous approval of every one of the 27 member states, I don't see a chance of it happening.
-
TBH you look more French to me. :)
I was brought up bilingual speaking froggy and English and although I do have a froggy name I am British.
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
-
I was brought up bilingual speaking froggy and English and although I do have a froggy name I am British.
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
Good to hear it, best nation on earth! :)
-
HobbyProggy wrote:
i expect the Uk either to stay
This cant and wont happen. There would be uproar in the UK were it to be attempted. The UK is leaving the EU, count on that. The question is how hard. Re disaster, I expect in the short term, up to three years, for the UK to suffer more than the continent, after that I expect it to be reversed, and the UK to do better that it has in the EU. There are a number of reasons for this: Joining the EU caused food to increase 16% due to adopting EU tariffs on food, designed to protect French farmers. Once outside, we can import food at a much lower price Negotiating trade deals that suit our economy. Not paying £38 billion today, and a further £16 billion every year (based on the upcoming seven year EU finances) Somewhat redressing the trade imbalance with the continent May's deal smooths this out of course, but a hard BBrexit isnt going to be that bad for the UK, we can trade with the continent on WTO terms quite happily, and the physical movement of goods wont be affected at all (it is up to us how hard we make the border on our side, and we already have quite a hard one at Calais, as we check for drugs and immigrants already. The boss of Calais has said he will do his upmost to make trade flow, and is investing in bigger lorry parks for checks their side. Existing EU law on food stuffs and medicines will be continued so no need for additional checks there).
Munchies_Matt wrote:
This cant and wont happen. There would be uproar in the UK were it to be attempted.
Are you sure? Britain is not France you know. When Brexit is cancelled, (or the can is kicked down the street for a few more years) I expect a few people to have a little paddy, nothing more. Remember most of the leavers were 60+, I can't see them getting involved in violent protests.
-
Munchies_Matt wrote:
This cant and wont happen. There would be uproar in the UK were it to be attempted.
Are you sure? Britain is not France you know. When Brexit is cancelled, (or the can is kicked down the street for a few more years) I expect a few people to have a little paddy, nothing more. Remember most of the leavers were 60+, I can't see them getting involved in violent protests.
The government wouldnt be putting the army on standby if they didnt think it a possibility.
-
Munchies_Matt wrote:
Of course the could just grow up, get together, and find the common ground. Yeah, fat chance! Bunch of moronic children that they are.
You could vote them out of office at the next opportunity...
Unfortunately, we don't get a "None of the above" choice.
