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  3. Estimating software like omelettes

Estimating software like omelettes

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  • G Gary R Wheeler

    raddevus wrote:

    If the chicken has already crossed the road, then you no longer have to implement Agile.

    No, no, no - that's not how Agile™ works. The chicken stops every six inches while it walks across the road (these are 'sprints'). It verifies with the stakeholder (aka the farmer) at each point that he's getting what he wants, i.e. the chicken across the road. The farmer can adjust the chicken's route any time he likes. Of course, none of the principals notice the traffic on the road...

    Software Zen: delete this;

    R Offline
    R Offline
    raddevus
    wrote on last edited by
    #18

    Ok, that explains the chicken, but what about the pig? :) The Chicken and the Pig - Wikipedia[^]

    G 1 Reply Last reply
    0
    • R raddevus

      Ok, that explains the chicken, but what about the pig? :) The Chicken and the Pig - Wikipedia[^]

      G Offline
      G Offline
      Gary R Wheeler
      wrote on last edited by
      #19

      That's easy. Use git for source control so that nobody really understands what a 'commit' does.

      Software Zen: delete this;

      R R 2 Replies Last reply
      0
      • G Gary R Wheeler

        That's easy. Use git for source control so that nobody really understands what a 'commit' does.

        Software Zen: delete this;

        R Offline
        R Offline
        raddevus
        wrote on last edited by
        #20

        Gary R. Wheeler wrote:

        That's easy. Use git for source control so that nobody really understands what a 'commit' does.

        Wow! You've obviously ascended into Management! :laugh:

        G 1 Reply Last reply
        0
        • D dandy72

          ...and if you rush the chicken to produce eggs quicker, you'll end up with a burnt out chicken before long. I'm sure plenty more valid analogies can be added. C'mon CP, don't let me down...

          pkfoxP Offline
          pkfoxP Offline
          pkfox
          wrote on last edited by
          #21

          Animal Farm

          "We can't stop here - this is bat country" - Hunter S Thompson - RIP

          1 Reply Last reply
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          • D dandy72

            ...and if you rush the chicken to produce eggs quicker, you'll end up with a burnt out chicken before long. I'm sure plenty more valid analogies can be added. C'mon CP, don't let me down...

            M Offline
            M Offline
            Marc Clifton
            wrote on last edited by
            #22

            dandy72 wrote:

            and if you rush the chicken to produce eggs quicker, you'll end up with a burnt out chicken before long.

            And yet sales keeps telling the customers that the company has a golden goose. ;)

            Latest Articles:
            Fun Exploring Div and Table UI Layout

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            • Sander RosselS Sander Rossel

              If one of those women was already eight months pregnant, and those chances increase if you (randomly) take more women. Or have them steal a baby, at least one out of nine should be successful! If I wanted a baby, and I wanted it as fast as possible, I'd take as many women as I could get and not take any chances :D

              Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Continuous Integration, Delivery, and Deployment arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly

              OriginalGriffO Offline
              OriginalGriffO Offline
              OriginalGriff
              wrote on last edited by
              #23

              This is exactly why you were banned from Tinder.

              Sent from my Amstrad PC 1640 Never throw anything away, Griff Bad command or file name. Bad, bad command! Sit! Stay! Staaaay... AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!

              "I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony
              "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt

              1 Reply Last reply
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              • R raddevus

                Gary R. Wheeler wrote:

                That's easy. Use git for source control so that nobody really understands what a 'commit' does.

                Wow! You've obviously ascended into Management! :laugh:

                G Offline
                G Offline
                Gary R Wheeler
                wrote on last edited by
                #24

                Them's fightin' words! Put 'em up! :mad: :laugh:

                Software Zen: delete this;

                R 1 Reply Last reply
                0
                • R raddevus

                  Reading thru The Mythical Man Month and there are quite a few interesting items.

                  The Mythical Man-Month, Anniversary Edition: Essays On Software Engineering 2, Frederick P. Brooks Jr., eBook - Amazon.com[^]

                  Gutless Estimating Observe that for the programmer, as for the chef, the urgency of the patron may govern the scheduled completion of the task, but it cannot govern the actual completion. An omelette, promised in two minutes, may appear to be progressing nicely. But when it has not set in two minutes, the customer has two choices --- wait or eat it raw. Software customers have had the same choices. The cook has another choice; he can turn up the heat. The result is often an omelette nothing can save --— burned in one part, raw in another. Now I do not think software managers have less inherent courage and firmness than chefs, nor than other engineering managers. But false scheduling to match the patron's desired date is much more common in our discipline than elsewhere in engineering. It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers. Clearly two solutions are needed. We need to develop and publicize productivity figures, bug-incidence figures, estimating rules, and so on. The whole profession can only profit from sharing such data. Until estimating is on a sounder basis, individual managers will need to stiffen their backbones and defend their estimates with the assurance that their poor hunches are better than wish-derived estimates.

                  I'm pretty sure that estimating hasn't changed at all since t

                  P Offline
                  P Offline
                  PIEBALDconsult
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #25

                  I keep having to tell my boss he can't schedule the release of work which isn't done yet.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  0
                  • R raddevus

                    Reading thru The Mythical Man Month and there are quite a few interesting items.

                    The Mythical Man-Month, Anniversary Edition: Essays On Software Engineering 2, Frederick P. Brooks Jr., eBook - Amazon.com[^]

                    Gutless Estimating Observe that for the programmer, as for the chef, the urgency of the patron may govern the scheduled completion of the task, but it cannot govern the actual completion. An omelette, promised in two minutes, may appear to be progressing nicely. But when it has not set in two minutes, the customer has two choices --- wait or eat it raw. Software customers have had the same choices. The cook has another choice; he can turn up the heat. The result is often an omelette nothing can save --— burned in one part, raw in another. Now I do not think software managers have less inherent courage and firmness than chefs, nor than other engineering managers. But false scheduling to match the patron's desired date is much more common in our discipline than elsewhere in engineering. It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers. Clearly two solutions are needed. We need to develop and publicize productivity figures, bug-incidence figures, estimating rules, and so on. The whole profession can only profit from sharing such data. Until estimating is on a sounder basis, individual managers will need to stiffen their backbones and defend their estimates with the assurance that their poor hunches are better than wish-derived estimates.

                    I'm pretty sure that estimating hasn't changed at all since t

                    J Offline
                    J Offline
                    Jorgen Andersson
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #26

                    Third choice, make a smaller omelette. If an omelette isn't ready in thirty seconds you're doing it wrong.

                    Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello

                    1 Reply Last reply
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                    • G Gary R Wheeler

                      That's easy. Use git for source control so that nobody really understands what a 'commit' does.

                      Software Zen: delete this;

                      R Offline
                      R Offline
                      Rajesh R Subramanian
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #27

                      Fucking yes. :laugh:

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      0
                      • R raddevus

                        Reading thru The Mythical Man Month and there are quite a few interesting items.

                        The Mythical Man-Month, Anniversary Edition: Essays On Software Engineering 2, Frederick P. Brooks Jr., eBook - Amazon.com[^]

                        Gutless Estimating Observe that for the programmer, as for the chef, the urgency of the patron may govern the scheduled completion of the task, but it cannot govern the actual completion. An omelette, promised in two minutes, may appear to be progressing nicely. But when it has not set in two minutes, the customer has two choices --- wait or eat it raw. Software customers have had the same choices. The cook has another choice; he can turn up the heat. The result is often an omelette nothing can save --— burned in one part, raw in another. Now I do not think software managers have less inherent courage and firmness than chefs, nor than other engineering managers. But false scheduling to match the patron's desired date is much more common in our discipline than elsewhere in engineering. It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers. Clearly two solutions are needed. We need to develop and publicize productivity figures, bug-incidence figures, estimating rules, and so on. The whole profession can only profit from sharing such data. Until estimating is on a sounder basis, individual managers will need to stiffen their backbones and defend their estimates with the assurance that their poor hunches are better than wish-derived estimates.

                        I'm pretty sure that estimating hasn't changed at all since t

                        J Offline
                        J Offline
                        Jacquers
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #28

                        Nice :) I've often had to temporarily break a piece of software to add new features and referred to it as breaking a few eggs to make an omelette.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • R raddevus

                          Reading thru The Mythical Man Month and there are quite a few interesting items.

                          The Mythical Man-Month, Anniversary Edition: Essays On Software Engineering 2, Frederick P. Brooks Jr., eBook - Amazon.com[^]

                          Gutless Estimating Observe that for the programmer, as for the chef, the urgency of the patron may govern the scheduled completion of the task, but it cannot govern the actual completion. An omelette, promised in two minutes, may appear to be progressing nicely. But when it has not set in two minutes, the customer has two choices --- wait or eat it raw. Software customers have had the same choices. The cook has another choice; he can turn up the heat. The result is often an omelette nothing can save --— burned in one part, raw in another. Now I do not think software managers have less inherent courage and firmness than chefs, nor than other engineering managers. But false scheduling to match the patron's desired date is much more common in our discipline than elsewhere in engineering. It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers. Clearly two solutions are needed. We need to develop and publicize productivity figures, bug-incidence figures, estimating rules, and so on. The whole profession can only profit from sharing such data. Until estimating is on a sounder basis, individual managers will need to stiffen their backbones and defend their estimates with the assurance that their poor hunches are better than wish-derived estimates.

                          I'm pretty sure that estimating hasn't changed at all since t

                          S Offline
                          S Offline
                          Stuart Dootson
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #29

                          [COCOMO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COCOMO) (and COCOMO II) is probably the only significant work regarding software estimation either before or after Mythical Man Month. And, having used it, I'm not convinced that, because of the complexity of its model, its much better than a 'finger in the air' guess, especially for enw or novel software.

                          Java, Basic, who cares - it's all a bunch of tree-hugging hippy cr*p

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                          0
                          • M Marc Clifton

                            And like an omelette, you have to break a few eggs to get the job done. ;)

                            Latest Articles:
                            Fun Exploring Div and Table UI Layout

                            A Offline
                            A Offline
                            abh555
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #30

                            Marc Clifton wrote:

                            you have to break a few eggs to get the job done

                            I know a fellow who uses that expression often, mostly to excuse the collateral damage caused by various upgrades. I'm glad he doesn't run an airline.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            0
                            • G Gary R Wheeler

                              Them's fightin' words! Put 'em up! :mad: :laugh:

                              Software Zen: delete this;

                              R Offline
                              R Offline
                              raddevus
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #31

                              :laugh:

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              0
                              • R raddevus

                                Reading thru The Mythical Man Month and there are quite a few interesting items.

                                The Mythical Man-Month, Anniversary Edition: Essays On Software Engineering 2, Frederick P. Brooks Jr., eBook - Amazon.com[^]

                                Gutless Estimating Observe that for the programmer, as for the chef, the urgency of the patron may govern the scheduled completion of the task, but it cannot govern the actual completion. An omelette, promised in two minutes, may appear to be progressing nicely. But when it has not set in two minutes, the customer has two choices --- wait or eat it raw. Software customers have had the same choices. The cook has another choice; he can turn up the heat. The result is often an omelette nothing can save --— burned in one part, raw in another. Now I do not think software managers have less inherent courage and firmness than chefs, nor than other engineering managers. But false scheduling to match the patron's desired date is much more common in our discipline than elsewhere in engineering. It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers. Clearly two solutions are needed. We need to develop and publicize productivity figures, bug-incidence figures, estimating rules, and so on. The whole profession can only profit from sharing such data. Until estimating is on a sounder basis, individual managers will need to stiffen their backbones and defend their estimates with the assurance that their poor hunches are better than wish-derived estimates.

                                I'm pretty sure that estimating hasn't changed at all since t

                                5 Offline
                                5 Offline
                                5teveH
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #32

                                I have nothing to add, other than: this is the best thread that has ever been on CodeProject. :thumbsup:

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                                0
                                • R raddevus

                                  Reading thru The Mythical Man Month and there are quite a few interesting items.

                                  The Mythical Man-Month, Anniversary Edition: Essays On Software Engineering 2, Frederick P. Brooks Jr., eBook - Amazon.com[^]

                                  Gutless Estimating Observe that for the programmer, as for the chef, the urgency of the patron may govern the scheduled completion of the task, but it cannot govern the actual completion. An omelette, promised in two minutes, may appear to be progressing nicely. But when it has not set in two minutes, the customer has two choices --- wait or eat it raw. Software customers have had the same choices. The cook has another choice; he can turn up the heat. The result is often an omelette nothing can save --— burned in one part, raw in another. Now I do not think software managers have less inherent courage and firmness than chefs, nor than other engineering managers. But false scheduling to match the patron's desired date is much more common in our discipline than elsewhere in engineering. It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers. Clearly two solutions are needed. We need to develop and publicize productivity figures, bug-incidence figures, estimating rules, and so on. The whole profession can only profit from sharing such data. Until estimating is on a sounder basis, individual managers will need to stiffen their backbones and defend their estimates with the assurance that their poor hunches are better than wish-derived estimates.

                                  I'm pretty sure that estimating hasn't changed at all since t

                                  S Offline
                                  S Offline
                                  Slow Eddie
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #33

                                  I am amazed no one mentioned project creep.... "Oh, can you add some mushrooms?", once you already folded the omelet.

                                  A programmer, like a woman's work, is never done.

                                  R 1 Reply Last reply
                                  0
                                  • R raddevus

                                    Reading thru The Mythical Man Month and there are quite a few interesting items.

                                    The Mythical Man-Month, Anniversary Edition: Essays On Software Engineering 2, Frederick P. Brooks Jr., eBook - Amazon.com[^]

                                    Gutless Estimating Observe that for the programmer, as for the chef, the urgency of the patron may govern the scheduled completion of the task, but it cannot govern the actual completion. An omelette, promised in two minutes, may appear to be progressing nicely. But when it has not set in two minutes, the customer has two choices --- wait or eat it raw. Software customers have had the same choices. The cook has another choice; he can turn up the heat. The result is often an omelette nothing can save --— burned in one part, raw in another. Now I do not think software managers have less inherent courage and firmness than chefs, nor than other engineering managers. But false scheduling to match the patron's desired date is much more common in our discipline than elsewhere in engineering. It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers. Clearly two solutions are needed. We need to develop and publicize productivity figures, bug-incidence figures, estimating rules, and so on. The whole profession can only profit from sharing such data. Until estimating is on a sounder basis, individual managers will need to stiffen their backbones and defend their estimates with the assurance that their poor hunches are better than wish-derived estimates.

                                    I'm pretty sure that estimating hasn't changed at all since t

                                    M Offline
                                    M Offline
                                    MSBassSinger
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #34

                                    2 things: 1 - The more time spent getting a requirements document and initial design correct, the better the estimate. Too many weak managers (i.e. not leaders) push to get "something" instead of the right thing, and the team and customer pay for that later. 2 - If a manager cannot or will not stand up to the customer (internal or external) and push back in order to manage the software development life cycle correctly, then that person lacks the leadership, management, and sales skills necessary to do the job. An effective manager makes an understandable and convincing case for doing things the right way. In the end, customers want success, not headaches and broken promises. Managers that do their job because they read how in some book, learned in some course, or got certified in some methodology are likely to fail. All those sources of information are good, but if the manager cannot synthesize that information into their experience, insight, and intelligence to figure out how to best manage a given project, then that manager needs to step aside or be replaced.

                                    R 1 Reply Last reply
                                    0
                                    • S Slow Eddie

                                      I am amazed no one mentioned project creep.... "Oh, can you add some mushrooms?", once you already folded the omelet.

                                      A programmer, like a woman's work, is never done.

                                      R Offline
                                      R Offline
                                      raddevus
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #35

                                      Slow Eddie wrote:

                                      "Oh, can you add some mushrooms?", once you already folded the omelet.

                                      :thumbsup: :laugh:

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      0
                                      • R raddevus

                                        Reading thru The Mythical Man Month and there are quite a few interesting items.

                                        The Mythical Man-Month, Anniversary Edition: Essays On Software Engineering 2, Frederick P. Brooks Jr., eBook - Amazon.com[^]

                                        Gutless Estimating Observe that for the programmer, as for the chef, the urgency of the patron may govern the scheduled completion of the task, but it cannot govern the actual completion. An omelette, promised in two minutes, may appear to be progressing nicely. But when it has not set in two minutes, the customer has two choices --- wait or eat it raw. Software customers have had the same choices. The cook has another choice; he can turn up the heat. The result is often an omelette nothing can save --— burned in one part, raw in another. Now I do not think software managers have less inherent courage and firmness than chefs, nor than other engineering managers. But false scheduling to match the patron's desired date is much more common in our discipline than elsewhere in engineering. It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers. Clearly two solutions are needed. We need to develop and publicize productivity figures, bug-incidence figures, estimating rules, and so on. The whole profession can only profit from sharing such data. Until estimating is on a sounder basis, individual managers will need to stiffen their backbones and defend their estimates with the assurance that their poor hunches are better than wish-derived estimates.

                                        I'm pretty sure that estimating hasn't changed at all since t

                                        M Offline
                                        M Offline
                                        maze3
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #36

                                        Upon completing the omelette, and the patron then requests that it be 3 egg omelette and not the 2 egg that you delivered, what do you do? - Cook a 3rd egg solo and sit it next to the other omelette. - start from scratch. - Cook the 3rd egg then when nearly done add in the complete omelette hoping that it looks like it merges together.

                                        R 1 Reply Last reply
                                        0
                                        • M MSBassSinger

                                          2 things: 1 - The more time spent getting a requirements document and initial design correct, the better the estimate. Too many weak managers (i.e. not leaders) push to get "something" instead of the right thing, and the team and customer pay for that later. 2 - If a manager cannot or will not stand up to the customer (internal or external) and push back in order to manage the software development life cycle correctly, then that person lacks the leadership, management, and sales skills necessary to do the job. An effective manager makes an understandable and convincing case for doing things the right way. In the end, customers want success, not headaches and broken promises. Managers that do their job because they read how in some book, learned in some course, or got certified in some methodology are likely to fail. All those sources of information are good, but if the manager cannot synthesize that information into their experience, insight, and intelligence to figure out how to best manage a given project, then that manager needs to step aside or be replaced.

                                          R Offline
                                          R Offline
                                          raddevus
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #37

                                          Great points. :thumbsup:

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