The worst Corona could have done
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W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
There is no perfect solution
God knows that you're right about that. Only complete morons are sure about the right solution.
W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
Keeping the students at school reminds of a recent event on a cruise ship in a Japanese harbor. That didn't work out well.
Maybe it was the best for Japan, imagine what would have happened in Yokohama if 700 potentially contagious people had gone ashore. Thing is, we don't know. Because it didn't happen.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Thing is, we don't know. Because it didn't happen.
Sort of one of my background mental processes when looking at options that could have (should have?) been taken. It's like climbing a tree. Every now and then we have to choose between branches. The branches further availed us are based upon each choice. From our ever-changing perch in the tree we can often see options offer only via other paths we didn't take - and some might look better. Be we need to pick a branch at each intersection and climb it - holding on for dear life no matter what the option because letting go is not a good option. My younger brother puts it as "shoulda', coulda', woulda'"
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Thing is, we don't know. Because it didn't happen.
Sort of one of my background mental processes when looking at options that could have (should have?) been taken. It's like climbing a tree. Every now and then we have to choose between branches. The branches further availed us are based upon each choice. From our ever-changing perch in the tree we can often see options offer only via other paths we didn't take - and some might look better. Be we need to pick a branch at each intersection and climb it - holding on for dear life no matter what the option because letting go is not a good option. My younger brother puts it as "shoulda', coulda', woulda'"
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
I like the tree-climbing analogy. And if I may expand on it: If you climb the same tree many times you learn the best way of climbing that tree. If you climb many different trees you'll learn to estimate the best way to climb. (Or to bring climbing tools) But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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My university is undergoing quarantine. All the classes have been cancelled, midterms postponed and all. We can't avail any facilities like gym or squash courts (now where am I supposed to take out my frustration :mad: ). Worst is, we are being kicked out of hostels and forced to go home. Like why can't we do this quarantine thing at hostels and labs. I still have tons of work to finish. How am I supposed to do research at home? :| I had squash tournament going on and my team qualified for nationals which is a big thing at least for me but here we are with Corona......EVERYTHING cancelled. I was literally completely unbothered by the virus until now since I'm not afraid of dying or what so ever but this shut-down is making me go nuts now. I think this shut down is much worse than virus itself. Bankruptcy rate will go much higher than death rate. Whatever :|
This isn't about you, even if you do get it likely you'll recover quickly because your young and strong. But you'll come in contact with old farts like me that already have problems and would likely not survive.
Monday starts Diarrhea awareness week, runs until Friday! JaxCoder.com
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I'd even like to be more specific than that. The point is to keep it away from the more sensitive or important part of society. Namely the elderly and hospital staff, respectively. The vast majority of people getting hospitalized with Covid-19 are elderly. So those are the ones that should be prioritized to be kept away from the disease. And if you close the schools, a large part of the hospital staff have to stay home with their children. Or the children will be taken care of by the grandparents, because mom is a nurse and would have to stay home otherwise. Counterintuitive? Oh yes! But think about it for a while. Meanwhile, let's all bring a baseball bat and have a talk with the special kind of idiots that goes to the Alps skiing while there's a decease running amok in society.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
And if you close the schools, a large part of the hospital staff have to stay home with their children.
I don't know in your place, but here, schools and kindergartens have a so called "emergency service". This means they are only "closed" for the average citizen, those parents who work in emergency jobs (medical staff, police, firemen...) and in some places even those who are part (and can prove it) of an important delivery chain for foods and 1st necessity items can still bring the kids to the school.
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Meanwhile, let's all bring a baseball bat and have a talk with the special kind of idiots that goes to the Alps skiing while there's a decease running amok in society.
Agree... or like in a city in spain... people closed at home and a group of elder people playing "petanca" in a park, they that are the ones who the whole damn thing is supposed to be done for. :doh: :doh: :sigh: :sigh: :mad::mad::mad:
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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I like the tree-climbing analogy. And if I may expand on it: If you climb the same tree many times you learn the best way of climbing that tree. If you climb many different trees you'll learn to estimate the best way to climb. (Or to bring climbing tools) But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.
And that's something I have already told a couple of times... the worst thing is... we will probably not learn from this as a society, some individuals will learn of course, but as a whole... we will have the same errors the next time. And then, the virus may be even more mortal.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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That's where you wrong IMHO... I do not know about the size of the risk group - but even in an 'old' country like Germany it is much less than the other... And not all - not even a fraction of those get infected will need to attend to hospital... As - and until - today they were hospitalized as a better way to separate them from others...
"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012
Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote:
That's where you wrong IMHO... I do not know about the size of the risk group - but even in an 'old' country like Germany it is much less than the other...
And I think you missunderstood me. I don't want to have the system collapsed by old people that are going to die anyways in a couple of years. If I need to go to the hospital with my kids because whatever, and I don't get attended because they run out of capacity and / or the medics are infected themselves... I would go nuts. I am not trying to protect the elder, I think this is good to protect us all.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Jörgen Andersson wrote:
And if you close the schools, a large part of the hospital staff have to stay home with their children.
I don't know in your place, but here, schools and kindergartens have a so called "emergency service". This means they are only "closed" for the average citizen, those parents who work in emergency jobs (medical staff, police, firemen...) and in some places even those who are part (and can prove it) of an important delivery chain for foods and 1st necessity items can still bring the kids to the school.
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Meanwhile, let's all bring a baseball bat and have a talk with the special kind of idiots that goes to the Alps skiing while there's a decease running amok in society.
Agree... or like in a city in spain... people closed at home and a group of elder people playing "petanca" in a park, they that are the ones who the whole damn thing is supposed to be done for. :doh: :doh: :sigh: :sigh: :mad::mad::mad:
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
Well, that solves the problem with the smaller children, but I've been thinking more about older children, teenagers and above. Those that don't do as they are told, because they are "immortal".
Nelek wrote:
Agree... or like in a city in spain... people closed at home and a group of elder people playing "petanca" in a park, they that are the ones who the whole damn thing is supposed to be done for.
I suppose they account for the "above" part above. :rolleyes: I actually suspect they're actually quite safe though. Being outdoors with continuous air exchange, and most probably keeping a much better distance to each other than children generally do.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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Well, that solves the problem with the smaller children, but I've been thinking more about older children, teenagers and above. Those that don't do as they are told, because they are "immortal".
Nelek wrote:
Agree... or like in a city in spain... people closed at home and a group of elder people playing "petanca" in a park, they that are the ones who the whole damn thing is supposed to be done for.
I suppose they account for the "above" part above. :rolleyes: I actually suspect they're actually quite safe though. Being outdoors with continuous air exchange, and most probably keeping a much better distance to each other than children generally do.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
but I've been thinking more about older children, teenagers and above.
Fair enough.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Jörgen Andersson wrote:
But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.
And that's something I have already told a couple of times... the worst thing is... we will probably not learn from this as a society, some individuals will learn of course, but as a whole... we will have the same errors the next time. And then, the virus may be even more mortal.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
Nelek wrote:
we will probably not learn from this as a society
One society actually have learned. And I hope we will learn from them. South Korea decided after the Mers outbreak 2015 that they did not want to me caught unprepared again, so they have invested heavily in testing equipment since then and are able to test magnitudes more people than anyone else. Their number of active cases isn't going up anymore, they have passed the maximum (at least at the moment), and that without shutting down society. Note, I'm not saying we can do the same, because we don't have their infra structure.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote:
That's where you wrong IMHO... I do not know about the size of the risk group - but even in an 'old' country like Germany it is much less than the other...
And I think you missunderstood me. I don't want to have the system collapsed by old people that are going to die anyways in a couple of years. If I need to go to the hospital with my kids because whatever, and I don't get attended because they run out of capacity and / or the medics are infected themselves... I would go nuts. I am not trying to protect the elder, I think this is good to protect us all.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
Nelek wrote:
I don't want to have the system collapsed by old people that are going to die anyways in a couple of years.
That's dark. Yes, I understand your point, but still. :sigh:
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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Nelek wrote:
I don't want to have the system collapsed by old people that are going to die anyways in a couple of years.
That's dark. Yes, I understand your point, but still. :sigh:
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Let's say the things as they are... there are going to be victims. If the young die, the system will recover harder than if the victims are the elder ones. Don't get me wrong, I would like to save as much as possible. But I say the things as I see. It is hard, yes. But the fact is: Natural selection has always been like that... elder, ill or injured are the first to die. If we try too hard to save the ones that would die in the natural order of things and then the victims are in the other sector, then we are doing something wrong, really wrong.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Nelek wrote:
we will probably not learn from this as a society
One society actually have learned. And I hope we will learn from them. South Korea decided after the Mers outbreak 2015 that they did not want to me caught unprepared again, so they have invested heavily in testing equipment since then and are able to test magnitudes more people than anyone else. Their number of active cases isn't going up anymore, they have passed the maximum (at least at the moment), and that without shutting down society. Note, I'm not saying we can do the same, because we don't have their infra structure.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Note, I'm not saying we can do the same, because we don't have their infra structure.
But we could have... And that's exactly my point with the "not learning effect".
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Let's say the things as they are... there are going to be victims. If the young die, the system will recover harder than if the victims are the elder ones. Don't get me wrong, I would like to save as much as possible. But I say the things as I see. It is hard, yes. But the fact is: Natural selection has always been like that... elder, ill or injured are the first to die. If we try too hard to save the ones that would die in the natural order of things and then the victims are in the other sector, then we are doing something wrong, really wrong.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
Historically, virus epidemies have often hit populations differently, depending on their genetics. New World natives were severly hit, often fatally, by viruses brought by the immigrants, but to them only causing a light cold. It is probably considered racist to point out the fact that in quite a few functions of society, the genetic distribution of those doing the job does not reflect the distribution in society as a whole. Some groups are overrepresented in jobs like management positions in cultural life, industrial leaders, toilet cleaners, taxi drivers, airplane pilots and fruit pickers. We do not yet have enough information to tell if the corona death toll varies with genetic disposition. It could be. If the variation between popualation groups is strong, it could severely affect some functions of society far more than others, even if the average death toll is not that bad. I don't know which would be worse: Loosing half of the airline pilots, half of toilet clearners or half of the managers of cultural life. Neither represent a significant percentage of the population, but the effect on society might be dramatic. (Obviously, the same population groups overrepresented e.g. as toilet cleaners are also overrepresented in other kinds of jobs, which would most likely be hit with similar strength. So to consider possible effects of corona hitting population groups with different intensity, we must look at all the kind of jobs that have a significant overrrepresentation of the group that may be hit badly.)
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OriginalGriff wrote:
it kills 3.5% of all infected persons
I don't know how they managed to reach that percentage, but 5,846 deaths and 75,954 recovered[^] works out as 7.7%, for me. Maybe I just don't understand Maths as well as people who studied medicine.
OriginalGriff wrote:
groups of young people are a damn fine way to spread this around
They're closing hardly any schools in NL, because they say that children aren't as much at risk of getting bad cases, and rarely even have visible symptoms. What children are good at, however (particularly symptomless ones), is carrying diseases to their parents, aunties, uncles, grannies, grandpas, neighbours, and everyone else. The logic that rattles around in some people's (presumably empty) heads eludes me, sometimes. If you see a bunch of schoolchildren going home from school, go in the other direction.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
Case of lies, damn lies and statistics I think! The way I read it the mortality rate is 7.7% of all those known to have been infected that have either died or recovered. There are a whole bunch of folk who are infected but haven't yet died or recovered, in this larger group the mortality rate is 3.5%. I expect there is an even larger group that includes all those infected but don't know it yet, probably this will take mortality to something less than 2%. Pick the stat you want depending on how much of a doom mongerer you want to be! :)
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I like the tree-climbing analogy. And if I may expand on it: If you climb the same tree many times you learn the best way of climbing that tree. If you climb many different trees you'll learn to estimate the best way to climb. (Or to bring climbing tools) But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Except for one thing - we each get to climb the tree but once. There is learning - but for application to future decisions - and had we not had success and failures, the decision making would be based just what looks good immediately ahead. Had you chosen another branch anywhere along the way, your experiences would be different and your view of those now inaccessible other branches from your new location would make new "I should have . . . " choices seem better. There's no rollback as once you have experienced something it changes all future perceptions (and thus judgements). If you like the tree analogy, consider that the early choices are the major branches and, as you climb as far as you can, the options are generally less influential. You location in the tree changes less with each decision - until our time has come.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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[DELETED] This isn't about young healthy people getting sick, this is about preventing the spread of a pandemic and limiting it's growth rate to that which medical facilities can cope with. Because it kills 3.5% of all infected persons, and if everyone on the planet gets infected that's around 250,000,000 people who die as a result. The slower it spreads, the better medical facilities can handle it, and the lower the death rate. And large (or even medium sized) groups of young people are a damn fine way to spread this around, particularly since it seems you can be infectious without showing symptoms. So stop whining about what are in the broad scheme of things minor hiccoughs, and think about your duties to your fellow human beings...
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
OriginalGriff wrote:
. Because it kills 3.5% of all infected persons,
That number keeps changing. And it's way lower among healthy and younger people so that number on it's own doesn't really mean much.
OriginalGriff wrote:
and if everyone on the planet gets infected that's around 250,000,000 people who die as a result.
And if everyone on the planet gets infected with the regular seasonal flu 4-8 million people would die (which is hugely significant) but nobody cares (except for those directly affected.) 2 real problems that no one seems to be concerned with. 1. All this crazy hand-sanitizing is only going to INCREASE the odds of people getting it. Corona virus has been around forever and we won't eradicate this strain either. So, when people go back to normal there will be so many with weakened immune systems due to overdose of hand sanitizer that they will be more susceptible to it. 2. We are a shrinking world and this will happen again. Shutting down the world for a few months is hardly the answer.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Historically, virus epidemies have often hit populations differently, depending on their genetics. New World natives were severly hit, often fatally, by viruses brought by the immigrants, but to them only causing a light cold. It is probably considered racist to point out the fact that in quite a few functions of society, the genetic distribution of those doing the job does not reflect the distribution in society as a whole. Some groups are overrepresented in jobs like management positions in cultural life, industrial leaders, toilet cleaners, taxi drivers, airplane pilots and fruit pickers. We do not yet have enough information to tell if the corona death toll varies with genetic disposition. It could be. If the variation between popualation groups is strong, it could severely affect some functions of society far more than others, even if the average death toll is not that bad. I don't know which would be worse: Loosing half of the airline pilots, half of toilet clearners or half of the managers of cultural life. Neither represent a significant percentage of the population, but the effect on society might be dramatic. (Obviously, the same population groups overrepresented e.g. as toilet cleaners are also overrepresented in other kinds of jobs, which would most likely be hit with similar strength. So to consider possible effects of corona hitting population groups with different intensity, we must look at all the kind of jobs that have a significant overrrepresentation of the group that may be hit badly.)
I see your point. But my point was: What is worse? To loose 50% of the 75+ old people or to loose 30% of the young people?
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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OriginalGriff wrote:
. Because it kills 3.5% of all infected persons,
That number keeps changing. And it's way lower among healthy and younger people so that number on it's own doesn't really mean much.
OriginalGriff wrote:
and if everyone on the planet gets infected that's around 250,000,000 people who die as a result.
And if everyone on the planet gets infected with the regular seasonal flu 4-8 million people would die (which is hugely significant) but nobody cares (except for those directly affected.) 2 real problems that no one seems to be concerned with. 1. All this crazy hand-sanitizing is only going to INCREASE the odds of people getting it. Corona virus has been around forever and we won't eradicate this strain either. So, when people go back to normal there will be so many with weakened immune systems due to overdose of hand sanitizer that they will be more susceptible to it. 2. We are a shrinking world and this will happen again. Shutting down the world for a few months is hardly the answer.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
ZurdoDev wrote:
2. We are a shrinking world and this will happen again. Shutting down the world for a few months is hardly the answer.
And next time the virus could be even worse...
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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ZurdoDev wrote:
2. We are a shrinking world and this will happen again. Shutting down the world for a few months is hardly the answer.
And next time the virus could be even worse...
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
Nelek wrote:
And next time the virus could be even worse...
Exactly. And shutting the world down for even longer next time is not a solution.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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I see your point. But my point was: What is worse? To loose 50% of the 75+ old people or to loose 30% of the young people?
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
Or: What is worse? To loose 90% of the toilet cleaners? To loose 90% of the bus drivers? To loose 90% of the CEOs of your country's medium to large companies? (as well as 60% of the Board of those companies) To loose 90% of the fruit pickers? Once you start defining groups, telling that this group is more valuable that group, you should ask: What about other groups, maybe more focused? Is "young" by itself the right criterion? How about young criminals - are those the one you want to save? Young drug addicts? What if pot was like poison to corona, so that pot smokers survived? What if the genetic disposition for becoming a homosexual was linked to something making those persons immune to corona, would that be OK with you? If native Americans turn out to be immune - or turn out to be extra sensitive - does that make any difference to you? What is semites (such as Arabs) turn out to be immune - or turn out to be extra sensitive - does that make any difference? Is age the only important criterion for selecting / applauding who shall survive, and the rest isn't so important? It is a criterion very simple to point out, but is it the best? If you could decide (hypothetically, since you have no such power, and we know that this isn't reality), either that all aryans, young and old, survive, but the majority of semites (such as Arabs) are taken out by the virus, or that young aryans and semmits (such as Arabs) come through it, but elderly aryans and semites die? Let me say that I know quite a few who would not trade their old grandma for a young Arab. Maybe you could call that racial prejudice, but even the United Nations' Declaration of Human Rights state (Article 16.3) "The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State" - this is very close to giving you explicit right to protect your family. (The declaration does not define "family" clearly - in some societies it could be a two-generation parent/child familiy, in others, it could be a multigenerational family.) I think that this is sufficient to justify that you give priority to your grandma.
