Worldometer
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Those are surprising numbers, but it's mostly speculation. Between 0.1% and 5% is a huge margin. Still, 50 million lives is only 0.65% of the total population. While only a small percentage, that would double the deaths this year, except not everyone who dies from COVID-19 would not have died otherwise so the actual number is somewhat smaller. Of course, with 500 million lives that quickly turns into 6.5% which is significant. That's an absolute worst case scenario though. Most young and healthy people only get mild flu symptoms, if any at all, and those aren't currently tested. However, there have been reports that lockdowns have had a minimum effect. That would mean the virus would somehow have stopped by itself, but that's, again, speculation. However, if you look at the deaths we're going to face in the coming years because of the global economic crisis, the measures we've taken now may actually do more harm than good. Between 2008 and 2010, 500,000 extra people died of cancer in the USA alone, simply because they were unemployed and couldn't afford healthcare. People are now starving in Africa and Asia because the lockdown prevents them from working and getting their daily pay. Suicides go up in times of economic recession, in 2009 this was 5000. Of course, 5000 is a small number, but it indicates people are generally less happy and face more stress. That could reduce life expectancy in the long term. Of course I don't have exact numbers of the people saved, but it's not as simple as saying "x people did not die from COVID-19 so we saved x people." Those x people account for y deaths elsewhere and all I'm saying is y may be as high or even higher as x, but we'll probably never know for sure. Meanwhile, it should be relatively easy to save 7 million people every year by banning tobacco (unfortunately, it's not THAT easy, I know). All in all, I'm really glad I don't have to make the decisions here :laugh:
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
Sander Rossel wrote:
there have been reports that lockdowns have had a minimum effect
It can be misperceived that way because lockdown was implemented a week or two too late, in all but a few countries, and the death rates that we've been seeing are the victims who were infected before lockdown. When the death rates drop, it's not because the virus has gone away, it's because the lockdown effect has caught up, and less people are infected. E.g. New York should be moving into a "recovery" stage, about now (if too many people didn't badly breach the lockdown), but without the lockdown, the current figures would continue until herd immunity was achieved in New York -- i.e. until everyone who might possibly be killed by the virus is dead, leaving the thinned-out "herd" to survive (until the virus mutates, which it will, to kill another n% of the population). A lot of people in Italy, Spain, and a few US states breached lockdown, in many cases very badly, so their recovery stages have been delayed -- and will continue to be delayed until a few weeks after everyone stops breaching, or until everyone who could die from it is dead. Note that those delays are imposed not by the authorities, but by the life-cycle of the virus.
Sander Rossel wrote:
That would mean the virus would somehow have stopped by itself, but that's, again, speculation.
Not the kind of thing to take a gamble on, given that all evidence that we currently have points in the other direction.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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Mark_Wallace wrote:
about a disease that does not have a political agenda.
Are you sure about that? The timing is awfully suspicious in favor of Trump getting re-elected. :laugh:
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
QED.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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Jörgen Andersson wrote:
when the medicine is worse than the cure?
Well, all you have to do is look below where Mark claims that not wearing a mask outside is tantamount to murder. :wtf: :wtf: I think the paranoia that has resulted from this is far worse than the virus itself. Not to mention the long term effects on the economy. Nobody wants anyone to suffer or die, but when the media hypes something up so far that neighbors are calling the police because kids are playing outside and people are claiming not wearing a mask is murder, society has lost its mind. And Mark is not the first one, by far, to say such a foolish thing. I have seen numerous people say the same thing. I feel bad for them, I'm not sure how I could function if I felt the way they do. What would happen when a real crisis happens? How could they cope with a real crisis when this situation freaks them out so bad? The mental health issues resulting from this situation will also take a long time to fix and have a heavy toll on society.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
ZurdoDev wrote:
Well, all you have to do is look below where Mark claims that not wearing a mask outside is tantamount to murder.
He has tendencies to drama. :rolleyes: But he's not alone in that. Wearing a mask in public is cheap and simple, and most probably reasonably efficient. So why not? Not meeting other people is obviously the most efficient way to not getting infected there is, so if you can work from home, you should.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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You sort of get it. Just - since you've done this before - you clearly identify as Norwegian - and have no problem using it when it suit you. As it is, however, when it doesn't suit you, your identified as USA. Since your ID is just a number, it's not automatically recognized as "you". so, unless you're embarrassed about it, update your profile. The same can be said for a nick-name. The lack of either, and the unwillingness to do anything about it when it being "spun" by you into an asset of "don't look at me - look at what I post" excuse just doesn't cut it. I doubt, seriously, if even you ever believed that. Unless - of course - you are ashamed of being Norwegian.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
your ID is just a number
Nonsense! CP looked into his heart...
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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These are 2 of the most common covid-19 dashboards being used by media, government, etc. today. The first one is run by Johns Hopkins University. ArcGIS Dashboards[^] Coronavirus Dashboard[^]
Allow me to add my current favourite to the mix. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data[^] This page has more than just raw data, they're actually crunching it and explaining it a bit as well.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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Nelek wrote:
I suppose you want to say "last year", as "this year" is not ended yet.
Actually, the website says "this year" so I assume that's 1.5 million deaths from smoking in a little under four months. That seems about right, according to Fast Facts | Fact Sheets | Smoking & Tobacco Use | CDC[^] which states 7 million deaths per year. The #1 preventable cause of death. Yet we do nothing. Well, that's not completely true, there are anti-smoking laws. But it's nothing compared to what we're doing against the far less deadly COVID-19. Here's a comparable website for alcohol: Alcohol Facts and Statistics | National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA)[^] (although it's USA specific). "making alcohol the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States. The first is tobacco, and the second is poor diet and physical inactivity." According to the WHO alcohol causes 5 million deaths a year worldwide[^]. Maybe people "choose" to smoke, drink or eat unhealthy so we'll allow it. I have no data on deaths from passive smokers or casualties from drunk drivers. So I wonder, if we can fight COVID-19 so vigorously and are apparently willing to sacrifice the economy and many more lives to save statistically few lives, why can't we do the same with tobacco, unhealthy food and alcohol? :confused: I guess COVID-19 floods the intensive care while the others do not and that makes all the difference?
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript
Sander Rossel wrote:
I assume that's 1.5 million deaths from smoking in a little under four months
Don't forget to take smoking figures with a pinch of snuff[^].
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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ZurdoDev wrote:
Well, all you have to do is look below where Mark claims that not wearing a mask outside is tantamount to murder.
He has tendencies to drama. :rolleyes: But he's not alone in that. Wearing a mask in public is cheap and simple, and most probably reasonably efficient. So why not? Not meeting other people is obviously the most efficient way to not getting infected there is, so if you can work from home, you should.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
most probably reasonably efficient.
That's debatable. But why not stop driving cars? I am putting everyone else's life at risk by driving a car (well not me of course, I'm a very good driver). And Covid-19 is not the only infectious disease I could be carrying so why not mask forever? Why not close down McDonald's because it is killing people? Tobacco? Alcohol? My point is the response to COVID-19 has been a million times that of our response to every other dangerous thing in life, many of those dangers much more threatening than COVID. I just want to see equal treatment of dangers. ;)
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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ZurdoDev wrote:
You can't measure that.
It is being measured in China, South Korea, and even a couple of Western countries. It's a fact.
ZurdoDev wrote:
Not a fact according to other articles
According to all articles written by experts and specialists in the subject, who have been working exclusively on this since it surged. Dr. Phil, newscasters, and twitterers with vested interests need not apply.
ZurdoDev wrote:
Plenty of articles indicate that China has massively under-reported their numbers
Not according to all articles written by experts and specialists in the subject, who have been working exclusively on this since it surged. Dr. Phil, newscasters, and twitterers with vested interests need not apply.
ZurdoDev wrote:
And there it is. "Anyone who disagrees with me facts presented by experts and specialists, who have been working exclusively on this since it surged is either stupid or arrogant."
ZurdoDev wrote:
That is called bigotry being neither stupid nor arrogant, and showing respect toward experts and specialists who know what they're talking about
I also show the same respect to other developers who know what they're talking about. Do you? Or does that depend on their political viewpoints, too?
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
your ID is just a number
Nonsense! CP looked into his heart...
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
Do'h ! You Homer'd in on that one right away.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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Nelek wrote:
Seeing the official statistics I would say the % are higher.
It's really hard to tell, because many countries only report deaths if the victim tested positive and died in hospital, and others have other restrictions; and while the number of asymptomatic people is now known to be high, it will be a while before we know how high. But it's possible that neither figure will ever be known with dead-on balls accuracy, so statistical analysis might prove to be more accurate (but we won't know for sure that it is). That said, this is scientific doubt, so don't be swayed by people who misrepresent that as "no-one knows what they're talking about" doubt
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
This was exemplified in one article commenting it: If a patient with covid-19 has a heart attack and dies from the heart attack, you may say that was the cause of death. But the covid-19 probably had weakened him significantly - maybe he could have survived the heart attack if he hadn't had the covid-19. If covid-19 was the underlying cause for his body's inability to handle the heart attack, should it then be counted as a covid-19 death even though the "direct" cause was the heart attack? A similar problem: In this country, about 1000 people die from flu every year. Because of the corona restrictions, we have had very little spreading of flu this spring, so we have fewer people dying from it. A share of those who die from covid-19 would probably have died from the flu, but covid-19 protected them from that death, and instead let them die from covid-19. How should we count that? This article stated that different countries and states have very different ways of classifying deaths. Numeric figures other than deaths are also collected according to varying practices: Yesterday, I learned that in Norway, when you are diagnosed with covid-19, you are counted for the "Total Cases". If you do not go to hospital, but stay at home and recover by yourself, there is no system for registering that you have recovered; that is only counted for those recovering in hospital. So you will forever be considered an "active case" e.g. in the Worldometer survey, even the day corona virus is totally extinguished. For comparing it to another virus, the measles: Before a vaccine was developed, we "did it the Swedish way", building up a herd immunity. Apparently, in Norwegian tribes, those with a genetic disposition for dying from measles had done so hundreds of years ago; kids could handle it. So whenever a kid caught measles, all his friends who had not yet suffered through it came to visit him to get infected, "to get it over with". We knew that catching it as an adult was far more dangerous. Official statistics say that every year (before the vaccine), 30,000 cases of measles were reported. That is about half of the population; approx 60,000 children are born every year. But... First, when I was a kid, everybody caught measles sooner or later. Second: It was a common thing, expected and usually handled at home. Why would we report it to the health authorities? How would we report it? I am far from sure that I am one of the 30,000 reported the year when it was my turn! I am quite sure that there w
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Jörgen Andersson wrote:
most probably reasonably efficient.
That's debatable. But why not stop driving cars? I am putting everyone else's life at risk by driving a car (well not me of course, I'm a very good driver). And Covid-19 is not the only infectious disease I could be carrying so why not mask forever? Why not close down McDonald's because it is killing people? Tobacco? Alcohol? My point is the response to COVID-19 has been a million times that of our response to every other dangerous thing in life, many of those dangers much more threatening than COVID. I just want to see equal treatment of dangers. ;)
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
ZurdoDev wrote:
That's debatable.
Everything is debatable, Look at the short video in an article I posted about here: The Lounge[^] Remember that it isn't about protecting you, it's about protecting others.
ZurdoDev wrote:
so why not mask forever
Actually...whenever you're having a cold or similar symptoms, you should, not just now, but always. It doesn't cost you anything, but could save someone else. This is what I'm talking about, anything that is simple low cost and does not disrupt society should be done. Everything else should be up for a deeper discussion.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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ZurdoDev wrote:
That's debatable.
Everything is debatable, Look at the short video in an article I posted about here: The Lounge[^] Remember that it isn't about protecting you, it's about protecting others.
ZurdoDev wrote:
so why not mask forever
Actually...whenever you're having a cold or similar symptoms, you should, not just now, but always. It doesn't cost you anything, but could save someone else. This is what I'm talking about, anything that is simple low cost and does not disrupt society should be done. Everything else should be up for a deeper discussion.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Everything is debatable, Look at the short video in an article I posted about here: The Lounge[^]
Exactly my point. There are articles claiming that this particular virus comes from the bottom of the stomach so the spittle from just talking won't have the virus in it. Sneezing or coughing might.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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This was exemplified in one article commenting it: If a patient with covid-19 has a heart attack and dies from the heart attack, you may say that was the cause of death. But the covid-19 probably had weakened him significantly - maybe he could have survived the heart attack if he hadn't had the covid-19. If covid-19 was the underlying cause for his body's inability to handle the heart attack, should it then be counted as a covid-19 death even though the "direct" cause was the heart attack? A similar problem: In this country, about 1000 people die from flu every year. Because of the corona restrictions, we have had very little spreading of flu this spring, so we have fewer people dying from it. A share of those who die from covid-19 would probably have died from the flu, but covid-19 protected them from that death, and instead let them die from covid-19. How should we count that? This article stated that different countries and states have very different ways of classifying deaths. Numeric figures other than deaths are also collected according to varying practices: Yesterday, I learned that in Norway, when you are diagnosed with covid-19, you are counted for the "Total Cases". If you do not go to hospital, but stay at home and recover by yourself, there is no system for registering that you have recovered; that is only counted for those recovering in hospital. So you will forever be considered an "active case" e.g. in the Worldometer survey, even the day corona virus is totally extinguished. For comparing it to another virus, the measles: Before a vaccine was developed, we "did it the Swedish way", building up a herd immunity. Apparently, in Norwegian tribes, those with a genetic disposition for dying from measles had done so hundreds of years ago; kids could handle it. So whenever a kid caught measles, all his friends who had not yet suffered through it came to visit him to get infected, "to get it over with". We knew that catching it as an adult was far more dangerous. Official statistics say that every year (before the vaccine), 30,000 cases of measles were reported. That is about half of the population; approx 60,000 children are born every year. But... First, when I was a kid, everybody caught measles sooner or later. Second: It was a common thing, expected and usually handled at home. Why would we report it to the health authorities? How would we report it? I am far from sure that I am one of the 30,000 reported the year when it was my turn! I am quite sure that there w
Member 7989122 wrote:
Before a vaccine was developed, we "did it the Swedish way"
I've been reading a lot on that in foreign news. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad. The "Swedish way" isn't about herd immunity, it's about having measures that are sustainable for a very long time. "Flattening the curve" doesn't stop the population from getting the virus, it postpones it, either until we've reached herd immunity the natural way or we have a vaccine. Whichever comes first.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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Nelek wrote:
I suppose you want to say "last year", as "this year" is not ended yet.
Actually, the website says "this year" so I assume that's 1.5 million deaths from smoking in a little under four months. That seems about right, according to Fast Facts | Fact Sheets | Smoking & Tobacco Use | CDC[^] which states 7 million deaths per year. The #1 preventable cause of death. Yet we do nothing. Well, that's not completely true, there are anti-smoking laws. But it's nothing compared to what we're doing against the far less deadly COVID-19. Here's a comparable website for alcohol: Alcohol Facts and Statistics | National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA)[^] (although it's USA specific). "making alcohol the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States. The first is tobacco, and the second is poor diet and physical inactivity." According to the WHO alcohol causes 5 million deaths a year worldwide[^]. Maybe people "choose" to smoke, drink or eat unhealthy so we'll allow it. I have no data on deaths from passive smokers or casualties from drunk drivers. So I wonder, if we can fight COVID-19 so vigorously and are apparently willing to sacrifice the economy and many more lives to save statistically few lives, why can't we do the same with tobacco, unhealthy food and alcohol? :confused: I guess COVID-19 floods the intensive care while the others do not and that makes all the difference?
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript
French study suggests smokers at lower risk of getting coronavirus[^]
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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Just curious: Is the www.worldometers.info[^] website available in the USA?
Look at all the trouble you caused by posting this! :laugh:
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
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Look at all the trouble you caused by posting this! :laugh:
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
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Member 7989122 wrote:
Answers covered a wider range of topics than I expected.
Pretty sure that was exactly why you asked it. Why else would you ask if a site is available in the US or not? Why wouldn't it be?
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Member 7989122 wrote:
Answers covered a wider range of topics than I expected.
Pretty sure that was exactly why you asked it. Why else would you ask if a site is available in the US or not? Why wouldn't it be?
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Sometimes you get the impression that the information available on the web site is not commonly known in the USA. But that might be moving into politics, which we are not supposed to do.
Member 7989122 wrote:
Sometimes you get the impression that the information available on the web site is not commonly known in the USA.
It's just some numbers. They don't really mean much. You can't just straightly compare one number to another.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Member 7989122 wrote:
Sometimes you get the impression that the information available on the web site is not commonly known in the USA.
It's just some numbers. They don't really mean much. You can't just straightly compare one number to another.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
