Place your bets ladies and gentleman!

OriginalGriff

Yeah, but the Atlantic is only 20% of the surface area, so that's 1:5 where the Pacific is closer to 1:3. The odds are with me here. :-D

"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

The scientists stated (or at least that what the journalist stated) that the probability of dropping on water is 71% - I would say it is 50-50... And from that they concluded that it would not land on settled areas (and injure someone) with a probability of 83% (seems like a number randomly picked by someone) - I would say it is 50-50... Way to high of probabilities to left to to chance IMHO...

"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

There is an interactive map to follow it... CZ-5B / 48275 / 2021-035B - Satellite Orbit Data[^]

"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

Slacker007

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote:

Their pervious crash was at Ivory Coast

rocket debris possibly landing in villages and not just water. Chinese Rocket Debris May Have Fallen On Villages In The Ivory Coast After An Uncontrolled Re-Entry[^]

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

Didn't saw that before, but that is exactly what concerns me... It is a big f* risk, but seems China does not care...

"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

Daniel Pfeffer

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote:

China does not care...

As long as it doesn't fall on Beijing...

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

They can't tell... But we know how much they care for their people... Not to mention outsiders...

"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

Dan Neely

Getting numbers like that isn't hard. A first approximation is just to look at the percentages of sea, land, and populated land between +/-42 (44?) degrees latitude - the parts of the Earth that the boosters orbit takes it over, a refined value would take into account that the orbits shape means it spends more time over the areas near the N/S limits of it's ground track and weight the areas based on that. Once it gets to within a day or two of re-entry you could refine even more by factoring in exactly what's under each of its orbital passes instead of aggregate around the world numbers. At that point the values would be adjusting themselves at ever increasing rates as the maximum number of possible orbits goes down.

Did you ever see history portrayed as an old man with a wise brow and pulseless heart, weighing all things in the balance of reason? Is not rather the genius of history like an eternal, imploring maiden, full of fire, with a burning heart and flaming soul, humanly warm and humanly beautiful? --Zachris Topelius

W Balboos GHB

Wrong question for my current mood. Now if you ask me where* I'd like it to fall . . . * read that "on whom"

Ravings en masse^

"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein

"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

It is very nice, but the probability of event is depends on the possible outcomes... And there are only two of them - it will hit someone or will not... That makes it a 50-50... Which is horrible...

"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

Dan Neely

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote:

It is very nice, but the probability of event is depends on the possible outcomes... And there are only two of them - it will hit someone or will not... That makes it a 50-50... Which is horrible...

It's only "50-50" in the same sense that a coin can land on a flat side or the curved edge when flipped. <

:rolleyes:

obermd

I'm hoping on their launch facilities so they think twice about being idiots again. This isn't the first time China has pulled this crap.

SeanChupas

There is a 100% chance it will land wherever it does, and a 0% chance anywhere else.

Daniel Pfeffer

As someday it may happen That a satellite will fall I've got a little list (He's got a little list)

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.

dandy72

It's not "interactive" if I don't get to control where to send it... :rolleyes:

Leo56

From the same people who brought the world....Wuhan Virus! (With due apologies - of course - to the W.H.O).... ;P

Wizard of Sleeves

I'm hoping it lands on my neighbor's house. No, don't ask.

Nothing succeeds like a budgie without teeth.

Fabio Franco

OriginalGriff wrote:

The odds are with me here. :-D

Well, there is 70% chance that it is not in the pacific ocean, so I beg to differ :laugh:

To alcohol! The cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems - Homer Simpson ---- Our heads are round so our thoughts can change direction - Francis Picabia

Fabio Franco

Don't have the skills to do it (specially with CP emojis), but couldn't resist googling the ASCII art.

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To alcohol! The cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems - Homer Simpson ---- Our heads are round so our thoughts can change direction - Francis Picabia

OriginalGriff

Yes, but ... "not the Pacific" isn't a specific place at all! :laugh:

"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!