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  3. Place your bets ladies and gentleman!

Place your bets ladies and gentleman!

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved The Lounge
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  • D Dan Neely

    Getting numbers like that isn't hard. A first approximation is just to look at the percentages of sea, land, and populated land between +/-42 (44?) degrees latitude - the parts of the Earth that the boosters orbit takes it over, a refined value would take into account that the orbits shape means it spends more time over the areas near the N/S limits of it's ground track and weight the areas based on that. Once it gets to within a day or two of re-entry you could refine even more by factoring in exactly what's under each of its orbital passes instead of aggregate around the world numbers. At that point the values would be adjusting themselves at ever increasing rates as the maximum number of possible orbits goes down.

    Did you ever see history portrayed as an old man with a wise brow and pulseless heart, weighing all things in the balance of reason? Is not rather the genius of history like an eternal, imploring maiden, full of fire, with a burning heart and flaming soul, humanly warm and humanly beautiful? --Zachris Topelius

    Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Offline
    Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Offline
    Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter
    wrote on last edited by
    #13

    It is very nice, but the probability of event is depends on the possible outcomes... And there are only two of them - it will hit someone or will not... That makes it a 50-50... Which is horrible...

    "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

    "It never ceases to amaze me that a spacecraft launched in 1977 can be fixed remotely from Earth." ― Brian Cox

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    • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

      It is very nice, but the probability of event is depends on the possible outcomes... And there are only two of them - it will hit someone or will not... That makes it a 50-50... Which is horrible...

      "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

      D Offline
      D Offline
      Dan Neely
      wrote on last edited by
      #14

      Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote:

      It is very nice, but the probability of event is depends on the possible outcomes... And there are only two of them - it will hit someone or will not... That makes it a 50-50... Which is horrible...

      It's only "50-50" in the same sense that a coin can land on a flat side or the curved edge when flipped. <

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      • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

        When and where the Chinese rocket will hit earth. The winner will earn the largest chunk of the rocket...

        "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

        O Offline
        O Offline
        obermd
        wrote on last edited by
        #15

        I'm hoping on their launch facilities so they think twice about being idiots again. This isn't the first time China has pulled this crap.

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        • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

          When and where the Chinese rocket will hit earth. The winner will earn the largest chunk of the rocket...

          "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

          S Offline
          S Offline
          SeanChupas
          wrote on last edited by
          #16

          There is a 100% chance it will land wherever it does, and a 0% chance anywhere else.

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          • W W Balboos GHB

            Wrong question for my current mood. Now if you ask me where* I'd like it to fall . . . * read that "on whom"

            Ravings en masse^

            "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein

            "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010

            D Offline
            D Offline
            Daniel Pfeffer
            wrote on last edited by
            #17

            As someday it may happen That a satellite will fall I've got a little list (He's got a little list)

            Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.

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            • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

              There is an interactive map to follow it... CZ-5B / 48275 / 2021-035B - Satellite Orbit Data[^]

              "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

              D Offline
              D Offline
              dandy72
              wrote on last edited by
              #18

              It's not "interactive" if I don't get to control where to send it... :rolleyes:

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              • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

                They can't tell... But we know how much they care for their people... Not to mention outsiders...

                "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

                L Offline
                L Offline
                Leo56
                wrote on last edited by
                #19

                From the same people who brought the world....Wuhan Virus! (With due apologies - of course - to the W.H.O).... ;P

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                • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

                  When and where the Chinese rocket will hit earth. The winner will earn the largest chunk of the rocket...

                  "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

                  W Offline
                  W Offline
                  Wizard of Sleeves
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #20

                  I'm hoping it lands on my neighbor's house. No, don't ask.

                  Nothing succeeds like a budgie without teeth.

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                  • OriginalGriffO OriginalGriff

                    Yeah, but the Atlantic is only 20% of the surface area, so that's 1:5 where the Pacific is closer to 1:3. The odds are with me here. :-D

                    "I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!

                    F Offline
                    F Offline
                    Fabio Franco
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #21

                    OriginalGriff wrote:

                    The odds are with me here. :-D

                    Well, there is 70% chance that it is not in the pacific ocean, so I beg to differ :laugh:

                    To alcohol! The cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems - Homer Simpson ---- Our heads are round so our thoughts can change direction - Francis Picabia

                    OriginalGriffO 1 Reply Last reply
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                    • D Dan Neely

                      Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote:

                      It is very nice, but the probability of event is depends on the possible outcomes... And there are only two of them - it will hit someone or will not... That makes it a 50-50... Which is horrible...

                      It's only "50-50" in the same sense that a coin can land on a flat side or the curved edge when flipped. <

                      :rolleyes:

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                      F Offline
                      F Offline
                      Fabio Franco
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #22

                      Don't have the skills to do it (specially with CP emojis), but couldn't resist googling the ASCII art.

                      ............................................________
                      ....................................,.-'"...................``~.,
                      .............................,.-"..................................."-.,
                      .........................,/...............................................":,
                      .....................,?......................................................,
                      .................../...........................................................,}
                      ................./......................................................,:`^`..}
                      .............../...................................................,:"........./
                      ..............?.....__.........................................:`.........../
                      ............./__.(....."~-,_..............................,:`........../
                      .........../(_...."~,_........"~,_....................,:`........_/
                      ..........{.._$;_......"=,_......."-,_.......,.-~-,},.~";/....}
                      ...........((.....*~_......."=-._......";,,./`..../"............../
                      ...,,,___.`~,......"~.,....................`.....}............../
                      ............(....`=-,,.......`........................(......;_,,-"
                      ............/.`~,......`-...................................../
                      .............`~.*-,.....................................|,./.....,__
                      ,,_..........}.>-._...................................|..............`=~-,
                      .....`=~-,__......`,.................................
                      ...................`=~-,,.,...............................
                      ................................`:,,...........................`..............__
                      .....................................`=-,...................,%`>--==``
                      ........................................_..........._,-%.......`
                      ...................................,

                      To alcohol! The cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems - Homer Simpson ---- Our heads are round so our thoughts can change direction - Francis Picabia

                      1 Reply Last reply
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                      • F Fabio Franco

                        OriginalGriff wrote:

                        The odds are with me here. :-D

                        Well, there is 70% chance that it is not in the pacific ocean, so I beg to differ :laugh:

                        To alcohol! The cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems - Homer Simpson ---- Our heads are round so our thoughts can change direction - Francis Picabia

                        OriginalGriffO Offline
                        OriginalGriffO Offline
                        OriginalGriff
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #23

                        Yes, but ... "not the Pacific" isn't a specific place at all! :laugh:

                        "I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!

                        "I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony
                        "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt

                        F 1 Reply Last reply
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                        • D Dan Neely

                          Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote:

                          It is very nice, but the probability of event is depends on the possible outcomes... And there are only two of them - it will hit someone or will not... That makes it a 50-50... Which is horrible...

                          It's only "50-50" in the same sense that a coin can land on a flat side or the curved edge when flipped. <

                          :rolleyes:

                          :rolleyes:

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                          M Offline
                          M Offline
                          Member 12353224
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #24

                          If we're being picky about numbers here, why does the original question involve multiple ladies but only one gentleman? :-)

                          1 Reply Last reply
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                          • OriginalGriffO OriginalGriff

                            Yes, but ... "not the Pacific" isn't a specific place at all! :laugh:

                            "I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!

                            F Offline
                            F Offline
                            Fabio Franco
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #25

                            Well, I don't see in the rules how specific it should be, so I do bet in not pacific hahaha. Actually I think I will bet planet Earth

                            To alcohol! The cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems - Homer Simpson ---- Our heads are round so our thoughts can change direction - Francis Picabia

                            1 Reply Last reply
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                            • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

                              It is very nice, but the probability of event is depends on the possible outcomes... And there are only two of them - it will hit someone or will not... That makes it a 50-50... Which is horrible...

                              "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

                              G Offline
                              G Offline
                              George Freeman
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #26

                              If you have a bag with 999 blue balls and 1 red ball and you reach in to pick one randomly, there are only two outcomes but the odds are definitely not 50 - 50 of getting a blue or red ball.

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                              • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

                                When and where the Chinese rocket will hit earth. The winner will earn the largest chunk of the rocket...

                                "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

                                B Offline
                                B Offline
                                BDieser
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #27

                                Using the last year and a half as an indicator, I'm going with it will land in the least desirable place.

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                                • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

                                  When and where the Chinese rocket will hit earth. The winner will earn the largest chunk of the rocket...

                                  "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

                                  R Offline
                                  R Offline
                                  Rusty Bullet
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #28

                                  I am betting on the East Coast of the US. Nothing like an international incident to spice up the weekend!

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                                  • Kornfeld Eliyahu PeterK Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

                                    When and where the Chinese rocket will hit earth. The winner will earn the largest chunk of the rocket...

                                    "The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

                                    M Offline
                                    M Offline
                                    Middle Manager
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #29

                                    I'm gonna go with about 100km south-southeast of Madagascar, in the water. I have a smudge on my monitor at that exact location when viewing the satellite tracker and I can't seem to wipe it off, so it must be a sign. Of course if I scroll the web page up or down my prediction would change... but I haven't scroll yet so I'm sticking with my first prediction instead of, say, the Saudi Arabian desert.

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                                    • W W Balboos GHB

                                      Wrong question for my current mood. Now if you ask me where* I'd like it to fall . . . * read that "on whom"

                                      Ravings en masse^

                                      "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein

                                      "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010

                                      P Offline
                                      P Offline
                                      Pete Kelley
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #30

                                      Mara-lago

                                      1 Reply Last reply
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