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  3. Calculating a Risk

Calculating a Risk

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved The Lounge
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  • O Offline
    O Offline
    Oakman
    wrote on last edited by
    #1

    Nagy is flying non-stop from New York to Budapest with AirTransmogrify. The scheduled flying time is twelve hours. Some time after taking off, the pilot announces that one engine had to be turned off due to mechanical failure: "Don't worry - we're safe. The only noticeable effect this will have for us is that our total flying time will be thirteen hours instead of twelve." A few hours into the flight, the pilot informs the passengers that another engine had to be turned off due to mechanical failure: "But don't worry - we're still safe. Only our flying time will go up to fifteen hours." Some time later, a third engine fails and has to be turned off. But the pilot reassures the passengers: "Don't worry - even with one engine, we're still perfectly safe. It just means that it will take eighteen hours total for this plane to arrive in Frankfurt." Nagy whispers to his seat-mate: "I hope they have enough beer. If the last engine breaks down, then we'll have to be in the air for twenty-two hours!"

    “Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one." ~ Albert Einstein

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    • O Oakman

      Nagy is flying non-stop from New York to Budapest with AirTransmogrify. The scheduled flying time is twelve hours. Some time after taking off, the pilot announces that one engine had to be turned off due to mechanical failure: "Don't worry - we're safe. The only noticeable effect this will have for us is that our total flying time will be thirteen hours instead of twelve." A few hours into the flight, the pilot informs the passengers that another engine had to be turned off due to mechanical failure: "But don't worry - we're still safe. Only our flying time will go up to fifteen hours." Some time later, a third engine fails and has to be turned off. But the pilot reassures the passengers: "Don't worry - even with one engine, we're still perfectly safe. It just means that it will take eighteen hours total for this plane to arrive in Frankfurt." Nagy whispers to his seat-mate: "I hope they have enough beer. If the last engine breaks down, then we'll have to be in the air for twenty-two hours!"

      “Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one." ~ Albert Einstein

      D Offline
      D Offline
      Dalek Dave
      wrote on last edited by
      #2

      In reality, he flew from New York to Heathrow, then drove down to Woking, then took a train to Luton, then flew to Budapest then a car to his home, managed a few hours sleep then went to a wedding, then back for a few hours sleep then a car to Budapest, a flight to Luton and then a Train to London. He should be in the office in about half an hour. How he does it I do not know, but I suspect the few hours of drunken stupour he enjoyed after leaving Luton may have helped!

      ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

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      • D Dalek Dave

        In reality, he flew from New York to Heathrow, then drove down to Woking, then took a train to Luton, then flew to Budapest then a car to his home, managed a few hours sleep then went to a wedding, then back for a few hours sleep then a car to Budapest, a flight to Luton and then a Train to London. He should be in the office in about half an hour. How he does it I do not know, but I suspect the few hours of drunken stupour he enjoyed after leaving Luton may have helped!

        ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

        N Offline
        N Offline
        Nagy Vilmos
        wrote on last edited by
        #3

        It's a lie I tell you! I never got that drunk. Saturday night, the flight was on the stand at 23:30 and I was home, showered and in bed by 00:15. This morning we where on the stand at Luton by 07:20. I just caught the 8:30 into town. I've been in about an hour and have yet to do any real work, just people asking 'How was NY?'. If things aren't busy, I'm going home after lunch.


        Panic, Chaos, Destruction. My work here is done. Drink. Get drunk. Fall over - P O'H OK, I will win to day or my name isn't Ethel Crudacre! - DD Ethel Crudacre I cannot live by bread alone. Bacon and ketchup are needed as well. - Trollslayer Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb - they're often *students*, for heaven's sake - Terry Pratchett

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        • N Nagy Vilmos

          It's a lie I tell you! I never got that drunk. Saturday night, the flight was on the stand at 23:30 and I was home, showered and in bed by 00:15. This morning we where on the stand at Luton by 07:20. I just caught the 8:30 into town. I've been in about an hour and have yet to do any real work, just people asking 'How was NY?'. If things aren't busy, I'm going home after lunch.


          Panic, Chaos, Destruction. My work here is done. Drink. Get drunk. Fall over - P O'H OK, I will win to day or my name isn't Ethel Crudacre! - DD Ethel Crudacre I cannot live by bread alone. Bacon and ketchup are needed as well. - Trollslayer Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb - they're often *students*, for heaven's sake - Terry Pratchett

          D Offline
          D Offline
          Dalek Dave
          wrote on last edited by
          #4

          Nagy Vilmos wrote:

          I never got that drunk.

          Excuse me, but dancing on a table wearing nipple tassels and singing "Hi Ho Silver Lining" whilst drinking Campari and Raspberryaid is the sign of a man who had too much.

          ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

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          • D Dalek Dave

            Nagy Vilmos wrote:

            I never got that drunk.

            Excuse me, but dancing on a table wearing nipple tassels and singing "Hi Ho Silver Lining" whilst drinking Campari and Raspberryaid is the sign of a man who had too much.

            ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

            N Offline
            N Offline
            Nagy Vilmos
            wrote on last edited by
            #5

            Dalek Dave wrote:

            Campari and Raspberryaid

            The only time in my life I tried Campari it was an interesting combo - Campari, Gin and Ginger Ale. Don't ask me why but it was a popular drink amongst the Young Bucks back then. If I recall it was sickly sweet. No, it was just sickly. X|


            Panic, Chaos, Destruction. My work here is done. Drink. Get drunk. Fall over - P O'H OK, I will win to day or my name isn't Ethel Crudacre! - DD Ethel Crudacre I cannot live by bread alone. Bacon and ketchup are needed as well. - Trollslayer Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb - they're often *students*, for heaven's sake - Terry Pratchett

            D 1 Reply Last reply
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            • N Nagy Vilmos

              Dalek Dave wrote:

              Campari and Raspberryaid

              The only time in my life I tried Campari it was an interesting combo - Campari, Gin and Ginger Ale. Don't ask me why but it was a popular drink amongst the Young Bucks back then. If I recall it was sickly sweet. No, it was just sickly. X|


              Panic, Chaos, Destruction. My work here is done. Drink. Get drunk. Fall over - P O'H OK, I will win to day or my name isn't Ethel Crudacre! - DD Ethel Crudacre I cannot live by bread alone. Bacon and ketchup are needed as well. - Trollslayer Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb - they're often *students*, for heaven's sake - Terry Pratchett

              D Offline
              D Offline
              Dalek Dave
              wrote on last edited by
              #6

              Campari is the sort of drink that is only ever drunk at the end of a party when everything else has gone.

              ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

              N 1 Reply Last reply
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              • D Dalek Dave

                Campari is the sort of drink that is only ever drunk at the end of a party when everything else has gone.

                ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

                N Offline
                N Offline
                Nagy Vilmos
                wrote on last edited by
                #7

                Everything had gone. Apart from Campari, Gin and Ginger Beer. Hence the combo.


                Panic, Chaos, Destruction. My work here is done. Drink. Get drunk. Fall over - P O'H OK, I will win to day or my name isn't Ethel Crudacre! - DD Ethel Crudacre I cannot live by bread alone. Bacon and ketchup are needed as well. - Trollslayer Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb - they're often *students*, for heaven's sake - Terry Pratchett

                D 1 Reply Last reply
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                • N Nagy Vilmos

                  Everything had gone. Apart from Campari, Gin and Ginger Beer. Hence the combo.


                  Panic, Chaos, Destruction. My work here is done. Drink. Get drunk. Fall over - P O'H OK, I will win to day or my name isn't Ethel Crudacre! - DD Ethel Crudacre I cannot live by bread alone. Bacon and ketchup are needed as well. - Trollslayer Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb - they're often *students*, for heaven's sake - Terry Pratchett

                  D Offline
                  D Offline
                  Dalek Dave
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #8

                  Odd, not of them are nice on their own, and yet add things to them and they work. Except for the Campari, oh, and the Ginger Beer.

                  ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

                  M 1 Reply Last reply
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                  • D Dalek Dave

                    Odd, not of them are nice on their own, and yet add things to them and they work. Except for the Campari, oh, and the Ginger Beer.

                    ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

                    M Offline
                    M Offline
                    Manfred Rudolf Bihy
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #9

                    Dalek Dave wrote:

                    Odd, not of them are nice on their own

                    There are two options here for you:

                    1. "Odd, not one of them is nice on its own..."
                    2. "Odd, none of them are nice on their own..."

                    Take your pick. :-D Cheers!

                    —MRB

                    "With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine."

                    Ross Callon, The Twelve Networking Truths, RFC1925

                    D 1 Reply Last reply
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                    • M Manfred Rudolf Bihy

                      Dalek Dave wrote:

                      Odd, not of them are nice on their own

                      There are two options here for you:

                      1. "Odd, not one of them is nice on its own..."
                      2. "Odd, none of them are nice on their own..."

                      Take your pick. :-D Cheers!

                      —MRB

                      "With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine."

                      Ross Callon, The Twelve Networking Truths, RFC1925

                      D Offline
                      D Offline
                      Dalek Dave
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #10

                      Typo, not thinko, I just missed an entire word out.

                      ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

                      M 2 Replies Last reply
                      0
                      • D Dalek Dave

                        In reality, he flew from New York to Heathrow, then drove down to Woking, then took a train to Luton, then flew to Budapest then a car to his home, managed a few hours sleep then went to a wedding, then back for a few hours sleep then a car to Budapest, a flight to Luton and then a Train to London. He should be in the office in about half an hour. How he does it I do not know, but I suspect the few hours of drunken stupour he enjoyed after leaving Luton may have helped!

                        ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

                        O Offline
                        O Offline
                        Oakman
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #11

                        Dalek Dave wrote:

                        In reality

                        Neither you nor Nagy are part of my reality. You only exist when I am on line.

                        “Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one." ~ Albert Einstein

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                        • D Dalek Dave

                          Typo, not thinko, I just missed an entire word out.

                          ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

                          M Offline
                          M Offline
                          Manfred Rudolf Bihy
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #12

                          Did I mention the word "typo" anywhere in my post? I don't thinko so. I just gave you two options to take your pick from. That's not so hard to understand now is it? :-D

                          "With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine."

                          Ross Callon, The Twelve Networking Truths, RFC1925

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          0
                          • D Dalek Dave

                            Typo, not thinko, I just missed an entire word out.

                            ------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]

                            M Offline
                            M Offline
                            Manfred Rudolf Bihy
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #13

                            Besides that my post clearly points out if you just missed a word (one in this case), you also totally missed out on the grammar. :-D

                            "With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine."

                            Ross Callon, The Twelve Networking Truths, RFC1925

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