Worldometer
-
You want the Math? OK, paper napkin time... There are 7.7 billion people in the world. Covid-19 has a fatality rate of somewhere between 5% and 0.1%. If 70% of people get it (the percentage estimated for 'herd immunity') then 5.39 people will catch it. 5% of 5.39 is 0.2695 billion or 269.5 million. 0.1% of 5.39 is .00539 or 5.39 million. I would say the actual fatality rate is likely to be between 1% and 0.5%, so we are talking between 25 and 50 million lives. That is assuming all of the critical cases get critical care. If critical cases do not get critical care then the fatality rate among them is 100%, otherwise it is between 10% and 20%. This means that if the health care system gets overrun you can multiply the death toll by 5-10, giving between 125 and 500 million lives.
Fueled By Caffeine wrote:
Covid-19 has a fatality rate of somewhere between 5% and 0.1%.
Seeing the official statistics I would say the % are higher.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
-
Sander Rossel wrote:
Actually, the website says "this year" so I assume that's 1.5 million deaths from smoking in a little under four months. ... which states 7 million deaths per year.
Ok... then numbers look fine.
Sander Rossel wrote:
Maybe people "choose" to smoke, drink or eat unhealthy so we'll allow it.
And I suppose that is the biggest factor, people "want" to do it.
Sander Rossel wrote:
So I wonder, if we can fight COVID-19 so vigorously and are apparently willing to sacrifice the economy and many more lives to save statistically few lives, why can't we do the same with tobacco, unhealthy food and alcohol?
You don't get the illness voluntarily and people is more aware of the dead possibility, because it comes much faster. With the other things it is a very slow process. This makes a big difference in how people perceive it.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
Nelek wrote:
With the other things it is a very slow process. This makes a big difference in how people perceive it.
This is it. If people died from cigarettes, fast food or alcohol within a couple of weeks things would be different. That's the same reason why so many people are opposed to better environment laws, they cost money now while the effects will never become visible (because we wouldn't know how things would be without them). That, and because people don't actually believe global warming is a thing, but that's another discussion. Still, staggering numbers :omg:
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
-
1,539,153 Deaths caused by smoking this year 770,064 Deaths caused by alcohol this year 1,692,170,966 Overweight people in the world 755,020,768 Obese people in the world Three very unnecessary products, tobacco, alcohol and fast food, take more lives than COVID-19 ever will. When will they be banned? When are we shutting down the economy for those? I know, the US already tried that with alcohol, but that's about a 100 years ago (not that I think it would be successful now). Basically, what we're saying is that 177,000 deaths from COVID-19 is a real crisis, but 1,539,153 deaths from smoking (that's more than eight times as many) is fine. The current measures will result in an economic crisis of proportions that we haven't seen before. The 2008 crisis alone took more lives than COVID-19. I guess more deaths is a fair price to save fewer lives. I'm just a bit confused by the math of it all :confused: Of course all of this is less about numbers than it is about "how we feel".
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
Before banning things, consider the unintended consequences that emerged during Prohibition in the US. But politicians learn nothing, because the same consequences are still here thanks to the War on Drugs. - rise of black markets that fund large-scale organized crime - turf wars between crime syndicates - poor quality products that kill users or make them seriously ill - non-violent users imprisoned, ruining their lives - police diverted from pursuing violent criminals - law enforcement corrupted with bribes - justification for an intrusive surveillance state I could probably go on. It's also interesting to note that Prohibition required a constitutional amendment. But the US Constitution has been ignored for a long time now, so they didn't bother with an amendment to ban drugs. Recreational drugs, of course, because pharmaceuticals are a very different story. What's "unnecessary" is also in the eye of the beholder. There are probably some things that you enjoy that are unnecessary, like having a cat when there are no mice or rats around.
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
-
You want the Math? OK, paper napkin time... There are 7.7 billion people in the world. Covid-19 has a fatality rate of somewhere between 5% and 0.1%. If 70% of people get it (the percentage estimated for 'herd immunity') then 5.39 people will catch it. 5% of 5.39 is 0.2695 billion or 269.5 million. 0.1% of 5.39 is .00539 or 5.39 million. I would say the actual fatality rate is likely to be between 1% and 0.5%, so we are talking between 25 and 50 million lives. That is assuming all of the critical cases get critical care. If critical cases do not get critical care then the fatality rate among them is 100%, otherwise it is between 10% and 20%. This means that if the health care system gets overrun you can multiply the death toll by 5-10, giving between 125 and 500 million lives.
Those are surprising numbers, but it's mostly speculation. Between 0.1% and 5% is a huge margin. Still, 50 million lives is only 0.65% of the total population. While only a small percentage, that would double the deaths this year, except not everyone who dies from COVID-19 would not have died otherwise so the actual number is somewhat smaller. Of course, with 500 million lives that quickly turns into 6.5% which is significant. That's an absolute worst case scenario though. Most young and healthy people only get mild flu symptoms, if any at all, and those aren't currently tested. However, there have been reports that lockdowns have had a minimum effect. That would mean the virus would somehow have stopped by itself, but that's, again, speculation. However, if you look at the deaths we're going to face in the coming years because of the global economic crisis, the measures we've taken now may actually do more harm than good. Between 2008 and 2010, 500,000 extra people died of cancer in the USA alone, simply because they were unemployed and couldn't afford healthcare. People are now starving in Africa and Asia because the lockdown prevents them from working and getting their daily pay. Suicides go up in times of economic recession, in 2009 this was 5000. Of course, 5000 is a small number, but it indicates people are generally less happy and face more stress. That could reduce life expectancy in the long term. Of course I don't have exact numbers of the people saved, but it's not as simple as saying "x people did not die from COVID-19 so we saved x people." Those x people account for y deaths elsewhere and all I'm saying is y may be as high or even higher as x, but we'll probably never know for sure. Meanwhile, it should be relatively easy to save 7 million people every year by banning tobacco (unfortunately, it's not THAT easy, I know). All in all, I'm really glad I don't have to make the decisions here :laugh:
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
-
Just curious: Is the www.worldometers.info[^] website available in the USA?
These are 2 of the most common covid-19 dashboards being used by media, government, etc. today. The first one is run by Johns Hopkins University. ArcGIS Dashboards[^] Coronavirus Dashboard[^]
-
This has nothing to do with politics! This has to do with a World wide pandemic. The fact that the USA voted an absolute gobshite idiot to represent them as president has absolutely nothing to do with politics, I live in Ireland. I never voted for any US President, for me this is not a political matter, but a matter of world wide disaster control.
Bram van Kampen
Bram van Kampen wrote:
This has nothing to do with politics!
Bram van Kampen wrote:
The fact that the USA voted an absolute gobshite idiot to represent them as president has absolutely nothing to do with politics,
:wtf: :wtf: :doh:
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
-
There's nothing political about it; it's just data -- about a disease that does not have a political agenda. If people decide to use data about people dying unpleasant deaths to frame political or religious messages or propaganda, they're terrible people, but the data is just data, and denying people the right to discuss such horrible events with their peers strikes me as being somewhat inhumane.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
Mark_Wallace wrote:
about a disease that does not have a political agenda.
Are you sure about that? The timing is awfully suspicious in favor of Trump getting re-elected. :laugh:
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
-
Before banning things, consider the unintended consequences that emerged during Prohibition in the US. But politicians learn nothing, because the same consequences are still here thanks to the War on Drugs. - rise of black markets that fund large-scale organized crime - turf wars between crime syndicates - poor quality products that kill users or make them seriously ill - non-violent users imprisoned, ruining their lives - police diverted from pursuing violent criminals - law enforcement corrupted with bribes - justification for an intrusive surveillance state I could probably go on. It's also interesting to note that Prohibition required a constitutional amendment. But the US Constitution has been ignored for a long time now, so they didn't bother with an amendment to ban drugs. Recreational drugs, of course, because pharmaceuticals are a very different story. What's "unnecessary" is also in the eye of the beholder. There are probably some things that you enjoy that are unnecessary, like having a cat when there are no mice or rats around.
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
My cat doesn't kill people (while I'm awake) :D Of course what you say is true. But isn't it weird that we're all panicking over COVID-19 while tobacco kills 7 million people every year? No one says I'll have a COVID-19 virus please, but at the same time we smoke a pack a day. I mean, how hard is it to not start smoking? (apparently pretty difficult...) If people were as panicky about smoking as they were about COVID-19, smoking would be banned within weeks with some smoking license or free nicotine gum or whatever for those already addicted. It's not about the unnecessity of things, but about the dangers.
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
-
Would it be considered politics, hence inappropriate for the Lounge, if I quote from the table that in my country, Norway, right now has suffered 182 corona deaths, 34 deaths/1M pop (rank 32 if you sort it on that column), and have made 145,279 tests, 26,798 tests/1M pop (rank 16 if you sort it on that column)? Or would that simply be quoting (presumed) medical facts?
Member 7989122 wrote:
in my country, Norway,
How about adjusting the home country in your profile to match 'your country' ?
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
1,539,153 Deaths caused by smoking this year 770,064 Deaths caused by alcohol this year 1,692,170,966 Overweight people in the world 755,020,768 Obese people in the world Three very unnecessary products, tobacco, alcohol and fast food, take more lives than COVID-19 ever will. When will they be banned? When are we shutting down the economy for those? I know, the US already tried that with alcohol, but that's about a 100 years ago (not that I think it would be successful now). Basically, what we're saying is that 177,000 deaths from COVID-19 is a real crisis, but 1,539,153 deaths from smoking (that's more than eight times as many) is fine. The current measures will result in an economic crisis of proportions that we haven't seen before. The 2008 crisis alone took more lives than COVID-19. I guess more deaths is a fair price to save fewer lives. I'm just a bit confused by the math of it all :confused: Of course all of this is less about numbers than it is about "how we feel".
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
Sander Rossel wrote:
I'm just a bit confused by the math of it all :confused:
How dare you bring logic to an emotional situation. :mad:
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
-
Sander Rossel wrote:
I'm just a bit confused by the math of it all :confused:
How dare you bring logic to an emotional situation. :mad:
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
I'm not sure whether you're serious or not, but I hope, against better knowing, that our great leaders use some form of logic in their decision making :laugh:
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
-
I'm not sure whether you're serious or not, but I hope, against better knowing, that our great leaders use some form of logic in their decision making :laugh:
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
Sander Rossel wrote:
I'm not sure whether you're serious or not,
Just being silly.
Sander Rossel wrote:
great leaders use some form of logic in their decision making
The problem is that nobody really knows enough about this virus. But everyone is too scared to be wrong so they are following everyone else and shutting everything down. Not sure if that is logical or not.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
-
1,539,153 Deaths caused by smoking this year 770,064 Deaths caused by alcohol this year 1,692,170,966 Overweight people in the world 755,020,768 Obese people in the world Three very unnecessary products, tobacco, alcohol and fast food, take more lives than COVID-19 ever will. When will they be banned? When are we shutting down the economy for those? I know, the US already tried that with alcohol, but that's about a 100 years ago (not that I think it would be successful now). Basically, what we're saying is that 177,000 deaths from COVID-19 is a real crisis, but 1,539,153 deaths from smoking (that's more than eight times as many) is fine. The current measures will result in an economic crisis of proportions that we haven't seen before. The 2008 crisis alone took more lives than COVID-19. I guess more deaths is a fair price to save fewer lives. I'm just a bit confused by the math of it all :confused: Of course all of this is less about numbers than it is about "how we feel".
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
You have lots of data but the use you put the to is basically false logic. Difference one - screamingly loud: For the most part, the items on your list are not contageous. I won't become obese because I'm next to a two-legged whale. (As for smoking, in the US (at least), my particular state has made it pretty difficult for smokers to smoke anywhere but out in the street. The second-hand-smoke is, in fact, "treated" - and there is consequential expense. For alcohol - I mainly would need to worry about drunk driving: unlike regular accidents, drunk driving is prosecuted as vehicular homicide and you can get prison time. There are sobriety check points at certain times of the year (for drivers) and any driver must submit to alcohol testing (if driving) as a condition of getting their license (refusal can be criminal). ) Difference Two: the basic compliment of one, above - transmission from person to person. You only need to be near them - or near where they were - and you may get a death sentence for it. Naturally, there is a subset of mentality that puts profits above lives. Indeed, smoking is still legal as is growing tobacco, so, your loving logic, about the damage to business, has a precedent. A rather sick one. Maybe if tobacco farmers had a red line tattooed on their forehead for each death they caused, they'd think differently of it. More likely, they'd grow bangs.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
You want the Math? OK, paper napkin time... There are 7.7 billion people in the world. Covid-19 has a fatality rate of somewhere between 5% and 0.1%. If 70% of people get it (the percentage estimated for 'herd immunity') then 5.39 people will catch it. 5% of 5.39 is 0.2695 billion or 269.5 million. 0.1% of 5.39 is .00539 or 5.39 million. I would say the actual fatality rate is likely to be between 1% and 0.5%, so we are talking between 25 and 50 million lives. That is assuming all of the critical cases get critical care. If critical cases do not get critical care then the fatality rate among them is 100%, otherwise it is between 10% and 20%. This means that if the health care system gets overrun you can multiply the death toll by 5-10, giving between 125 and 500 million lives.
Fueled By Caffeine wrote:
If critical cases do not get critical care then the fatality rate among them is 100%, otherwise it is between 10% and 20%.
That does not seem to be entirely correct. Early Data on Intubated COVID-19 Patients Reveals Severe Mortality | RT[^] (RTMagazine is not Russia Today, It's Respiratory Technology Magazine) 80% NYC COVID-19 ventilator patients die, doctors want to stop using - Business Insider[^] https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928605[^]
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
-
Member 7989122 wrote:
in my country, Norway,
How about adjusting the home country in your profile to match 'your country' ?
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
I have answered to that multiple times: CP is capable of handling an unspecified nick, it makes no assumptions. It shouldn't be more difficult to handle an unspecified country. I have neither specified a nick nor a country - CP itself decided to locate me in one specific country. My reason for not using a name/nick is because I want the reader to focus on what I am saying, not on who is saying it. Not on which country the writer comes from, but what he is saying. If my country has any significance to what I am saying, I mention it. I am sure that if CP had a country value of "unspecified", you wouldn't be bothered by me stating my country whenever relevant. What causes problems is that CP assumes USA as the country until explicitly changed. The problem is with CP, not with me.
-
I have answered to that multiple times: CP is capable of handling an unspecified nick, it makes no assumptions. It shouldn't be more difficult to handle an unspecified country. I have neither specified a nick nor a country - CP itself decided to locate me in one specific country. My reason for not using a name/nick is because I want the reader to focus on what I am saying, not on who is saying it. Not on which country the writer comes from, but what he is saying. If my country has any significance to what I am saying, I mention it. I am sure that if CP had a country value of "unspecified", you wouldn't be bothered by me stating my country whenever relevant. What causes problems is that CP assumes USA as the country until explicitly changed. The problem is with CP, not with me.
You sort of get it. Just - since you've done this before - you clearly identify as Norwegian - and have no problem using it when it suit you. As it is, however, when it doesn't suit you, your identified as USA. Since your ID is just a number, it's not automatically recognized as "you". so, unless you're embarrassed about it, update your profile. The same can be said for a nick-name. The lack of either, and the unwillingness to do anything about it when it being "spun" by you into an asset of "don't look at me - look at what I post" excuse just doesn't cut it. I doubt, seriously, if even you ever believed that. Unless - of course - you are ashamed of being Norwegian.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
1,539,153 Deaths caused by smoking this year 770,064 Deaths caused by alcohol this year 1,692,170,966 Overweight people in the world 755,020,768 Obese people in the world Three very unnecessary products, tobacco, alcohol and fast food, take more lives than COVID-19 ever will. When will they be banned? When are we shutting down the economy for those? I know, the US already tried that with alcohol, but that's about a 100 years ago (not that I think it would be successful now). Basically, what we're saying is that 177,000 deaths from COVID-19 is a real crisis, but 1,539,153 deaths from smoking (that's more than eight times as many) is fine. The current measures will result in an economic crisis of proportions that we haven't seen before. The 2008 crisis alone took more lives than COVID-19. I guess more deaths is a fair price to save fewer lives. I'm just a bit confused by the math of it all :confused: Of course all of this is less about numbers than it is about "how we feel".
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
Let's add the forgotten pandemic to that. HIV. In 2018 an approximated 770 000 people died from HIV. Making a total of 32 million, also an approximation. Let's also add some inconvenient truths.
- "Flattening the curve" doesn't mean less people get sick, only that we spread it over a longer time
- There is at the moment no treatment for Covid-19. There might be in the future.
- We're all going to die, the question is only from what and when.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
-
You have lots of data but the use you put the to is basically false logic. Difference one - screamingly loud: For the most part, the items on your list are not contageous. I won't become obese because I'm next to a two-legged whale. (As for smoking, in the US (at least), my particular state has made it pretty difficult for smokers to smoke anywhere but out in the street. The second-hand-smoke is, in fact, "treated" - and there is consequential expense. For alcohol - I mainly would need to worry about drunk driving: unlike regular accidents, drunk driving is prosecuted as vehicular homicide and you can get prison time. There are sobriety check points at certain times of the year (for drivers) and any driver must submit to alcohol testing (if driving) as a condition of getting their license (refusal can be criminal). ) Difference Two: the basic compliment of one, above - transmission from person to person. You only need to be near them - or near where they were - and you may get a death sentence for it. Naturally, there is a subset of mentality that puts profits above lives. Indeed, smoking is still legal as is growing tobacco, so, your loving logic, about the damage to business, has a precedent. A rather sick one. Maybe if tobacco farmers had a red line tattooed on their forehead for each death they caused, they'd think differently of it. More likely, they'd grow bangs.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
I think they would run out of forehead.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
-
Sander Rossel wrote:
I'm not sure whether you're serious or not,
Just being silly.
Sander Rossel wrote:
great leaders use some form of logic in their decision making
The problem is that nobody really knows enough about this virus. But everyone is too scared to be wrong so they are following everyone else and shutting everything down. Not sure if that is logical or not.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
ZurdoDev wrote:
The problem is that nobody really knows enough about this virus. But everyone is too scared to be wrong so they are following everyone else and shutting everything down.
This! The question is when the medicine is worse than the cure? I don't know, but the problem seems to be that neither does anyone else.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
-
You have lots of data but the use you put the to is basically false logic. Difference one - screamingly loud: For the most part, the items on your list are not contageous. I won't become obese because I'm next to a two-legged whale. (As for smoking, in the US (at least), my particular state has made it pretty difficult for smokers to smoke anywhere but out in the street. The second-hand-smoke is, in fact, "treated" - and there is consequential expense. For alcohol - I mainly would need to worry about drunk driving: unlike regular accidents, drunk driving is prosecuted as vehicular homicide and you can get prison time. There are sobriety check points at certain times of the year (for drivers) and any driver must submit to alcohol testing (if driving) as a condition of getting their license (refusal can be criminal). ) Difference Two: the basic compliment of one, above - transmission from person to person. You only need to be near them - or near where they were - and you may get a death sentence for it. Naturally, there is a subset of mentality that puts profits above lives. Indeed, smoking is still legal as is growing tobacco, so, your loving logic, about the damage to business, has a precedent. A rather sick one. Maybe if tobacco farmers had a red line tattooed on their forehead for each death they caused, they'd think differently of it. More likely, they'd grow bangs.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
My premise was "we don't want people to die", but I now see how naive that is :laugh: It should've been "I don't want to die" or "I don't want to have the risk of dying" and in that case everything makes a lot more sense. That said, chances of me personally dying of COVID-19 are pretty slim, so I'd prefer everything to be as it was and risk getting some mild flu symptoms. That goes for lots of people though, so maybe we're something in between.
W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
unlike regular accidents, drunk driving is prosecuted as vehicular homicide and you can get prison time.
That won't bring back the deceased though, and the relatives will be sentenced for life :sigh:
W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
I won't become obese because I'm next to a two-legged whale.
:laugh:
W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
More likely, they'd grow bangs.
:laugh:
Best, Sander sanderrossel.com Migrating Applications to the Cloud with Azure arrgh.js - Bringing LINQ to JavaScript Object-Oriented Programming in C# Succinctly
