Fred... multiplying the number of cells doesn't change the basic analysis. I think you are stretching the notion of "probability" outside its natural domain. Probability hinges on possible outcomes. What if the guard at 9:00 pm tells A, B, and C that 2 will die in the morning. but at midnight tells A he is going to be spared and tells B he is going to die and tells C nothing. Because probabilities hinge on possible outcomes, they will change for different people at different times. At 9:00 A/B/C all have a 1/3 chance of survival. At 12:00 the probability of survival is relevant to each person, dependent on how many possible outcomes are still viable. At midnight: A has a 100% probability of surviving B has a 0% chance of surviving C has a 33.3% chance of surviving You are thinking of probability as an absolute, when it is dependent on the individual, the timeline, and the availability of information. A and B know that C is going to die, but C doesn't, so his probablity (personal to him) is still 33.3%. If probability equals outcome/possible outcomes... there is no issue here. Because possible outcomes are entirely dependent on the flow of information. Let's say I pick one card out of a deck of cards, identify the card without showing it to you, and then putting it face down, while telling you that I will give you a million dollars if you tell me what card it is? What is the probability of winning the million? That is an unanswerable question, until you specify whose perspective you are talking about. Before you take your guess what is the probability that you will win. My perspective 1/52 Your perspective 1/52 God's perspective ?? There is no such thing as probability when talking about God because God operates outside of time, where there are no "possible outcomes" there is only THE outcome. You guess, but I haven't turned the card over. Your perspective still 1/52 My persoective ?? Probability no longer applies to me because the notion of possible outcomes has disapeared. Once I turn the card over, the notion of probability disappears for you too, since possible outcomes have also evaporated. It should not surprise you that probabilities change in accordance with information that changes the number of possible outcomes.

I don't see the problem here Fred. The size of the "Who Is Going to Die" sample is 3 (n=3) at the outset. A, B, and C all have a 1/3 chance of dying. However, B is taken out of the "Who is Going to Die" pool so now the sample size is 2 (n=2). Probability is based on possiible outcomes. You can't compare the proability percentage between scenarios where the possible outcomes are different. n=3 vs n-2. Probability examimes a possible outcome against all possible outcomes. If all possible outcomes change, then they can't be compared. So the probability is 1 out of 3 before chatting with guard amd 1 out of 2 after chatting with the guard.

It is hard to take Pilger seriously. The guy is just your average left-wing nutbar. Here is one of his quotes: "During the Cold War, a group of Russian journalists toured the United States. On the final day of their visit, they were asked by their hosts for their impressions. ‘I have to tell you,’ said their spokesman, ‘that we were astonished to find after reading all the newspapers and watching TV, that all the opinions on all the vital issues were by and large, the same. To get that result in our country, we imprison people, we tear out their fingernails. Here, you don’t have that. What’s the secret? How do you do it?" That is totally idiotic. The U.S. media could hardly be accused of walking in lock step. I am sure that the muted commentary of U.S. mainstream journalism reflects the muted feelings of the majority of the U.S population. Fringe players on the left and right have fringe audiences. Big whoop! As for Chavez and his sympathizers, the problem is due process. Chavez doesn't understand the concept and apparently his sympathizers don't either. If a TV station is **allegedly** fomenting for a coup then you deal with the issue within the rule of law. Otherwise it looks like you are a dictator ruthlessly trying to suppress government criticism, which of course is exactly what Hugo "President for Life" Chavez was doing. And it kind of Orwellian for a Chavez sympathizer to be lamenting the death of democracy in a country where the media have spent the last 4 years ruthlessly savaging the government, while at the same time Chavez--acting as prosecutor, judge, and jury--is shutting down dissenting media voices. Chadlling

>>>Now with this DRM crap (even though I don't download music or movies), product activation (even though I buy all my software), security and privacy issues (even though I take all the steps I can to ensure it's kept secure and private),<<< No offense John, but you don't sound much like an outlaw to me. That is what makes me cringe at your post. How can someone over 50 still be strutting around calling himself an "outlaw"?

You are in luck... the all time article king of CP happens to be from TVM. Nish?

Varinder, Well the phenomena isn't limited to CodeProject, although I'd venture to say that many people here are not nearly as witty or clever as they might imagine. Take any thread, on any forum like CodeProject or others, and many of the reply posts are people who imagine themselves to be very clever and witty. I guess every once in a while I get tired of scrolling through all these so-called "witty" posts. And yesterday it made me try and recall the truly witty people I know--the list is pretty short. Chadlling

Anybody else getting sick of the people who think they are ever so clever and witty, and are forever trying their wit out on the unfortunate people they encounter? True reconteurs or persons of great wit are rare... I have met maybe two in my life, along with several millions wannabes. It seem like a malady of the youngish male.

Heh that was fun... took me three cracks... but the Developer has the goldfish. Chadlling

Good one Ashley! LOL!!

Well if we want to get right down to it, colour exists only as a seconday characteristic, created entirely in the mind of the receiver. Atoms don't have colours!!! LOL!

Jeffrey, Yes, yes... I think you are right. Ennis wasn't bragging up his party trick. But I was just commenting that 16 digits doesn't seem like that great of a memory trick to begin with. Or did I completely miss it... and the whole party trick was to get people to be gullible enough to get their credit card out in the first place?? Now you've got me thinking!!!

Heh Ennis... that isn't much of a party trick. Sixteen lousy digits! LOL When I was at Uni I got interested in one of the memory books and memorized a 100 digit number... now THAT was a good party trick. Now that I think of it... I could have made it a lot easier on myself and just memorized the names of say fifteen people in a row, whose phone number I knew, and it probably would have worked just as well. Chadlling

Heh... David Wulff... you are alive. LOL! Your ISM friend across the pond in Canada has been trying to get a hold of you for months. He would love an e-mail.

HollyHoo, I am with you. I have an 8-year-old who asks me every day: "Dad, when does hockey season start?" I asked him if he was anxious to start playing. He said: "No. I can't wait to watch on TV." Hockey on Saturday night can only mean one thing... da, da, da, da, da... HNIC! Go Leafs Go

Peter, Isn't it considered very bad manners to correct the grammar, spelling, and usage of someone on the Internet? Chad

Nish, Go check out Ottawa in January... it looks great... just like the inside of your freezer when you are getting your ice cream out. Chad

Maximillien, I learned from experience that you don't need the "1" as in 1 North Pole. just Santa Claus North Pole H0H 0H0 will do it. How many folks here didn't know that Santa Claus is a Canadian. Makes sense... he does have a good beer gut going!!

Lucy, Naw... no vowels allowed! Chad

Must be an age thing. When I need a US zip code for a web site... I always put in 60609... which was the zip code that was mentioned in all the "markson Goodson" Tv game shows like "Let's make a deal" and that nonsense that we watched as kids. Now it is 90210... makes sense! Chad

Brian, Could you reproduce it for us? Canada only has 6 digits... going in order from bigger area in the first digit/letter to your actual street in the last digit. Ontario (11 million people) have PCs starting with K,L,M,N,P (no vowels). Boy... aren't postal codes just the most exciting things to read about? LOL Chad